3 things that will make or break Tories in 2026 – one would be suicide | Politics | News
The Conservative Party is at a crossroads. The mood in the party suggests that some MPs see this year as one that will make or break the party’s leadership and possibly the institution itself. 2026 will bring three seismic tests to the country’s oldest political power; If you pass them, they may survive, but they fail and go to waste.
First up are the local elections in May, which almost everyone can say will see the Conservatives take a hit. Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats will cut through the vote in central England like a knife through hot butter, and Reformation will split the Tory vote in traditional heartlands. One MP, ever the pessimist, told me that there was an expected “extinction” in their district; This area was the former stronghold of the blue team; here even CCHQ admits the seats will fall to Labor because they are surreptitiously emerging as Reform and Conservatives fight for the same voters.
This is much more important than the headlines imply. Conservative councilors are the party’s ground troops; It is they who put pressure on the flesh, wear out the leather of shoes and call on voters to line up their MPs during general elections. Lose too many councilors and the Blue Army will be weakened just when it needs reinforcements. Additionally, many local councilors have the ear of their MPs, and if they are destroyed the temptation to panic can have very serious consequences.
Which brings us to the second test: the inevitable whispers of Kemi Badenoch’s replacement. MPs were already in the mood for sedition before the 2025 party conference, and there is no doubt that they will sharpen their knives again after May. So have the Conservatives learned nothing from the Boris-Liz-Rishi carnival of disaster? Voters despise regicide and hate parties that devour their leaders like Cronus devoured his children.
Whether MPs realize it or not, Ms. Badenoch is doing something pretty important. He articulates a consistent Conservative vision: small government, free markets, supporting strivers over shirkers. This is ground occupied by no other party. Labor has turned into a high-tax, high-spending giant. The Liberal Democrats appear to have remained silent. Reform appears to rely on protest voting and has yet to establish a serious policy infrastructure.
The Conservatives’ return to their Thatcherite roots is not a retreat but a long-overdue rediscovery. It could be argued that this is what they should have been doing all along, rather than emulating Labour’s soft managerialism. Miss Badenoch may not be perfect, but she represents something original; It would be a great folly to change it after bad local elections.
The third test is the most dangerous: the siren call of the Reform-Conservatism agreement. The deal is a highly divisive issue in the background. Some argue that a deal is essential if May goes as badly as they predict, while others say Faustian bargaining would be “suicide”.
Reformation wants to destroy the Conservative Party and they are not shy about admitting it. Honestly, they have nothing to gain from a deal; After all, if they want to establish themselves as the natural home of the Right, Tory votes are what they need to muster. Meanwhile, the Conservatives need to win back Reform voters without surrendering their identities.
Therefore, any agreement will have to be made on the terms of the Reformation. Conservatives will be the junior partner, the supplicant, the one desperately clinging to attention. One MP put it well: A deal with Reform would kill the Conservative Party.
Even if it is unpleasant, the way forward is clear. Weather the May storm and stay with Miss Badenoch. Articulate a proper Conservative vision and stop chasing votes by triangulation. The next general election is years away. If the party doesn’t blow itself up first, that’s enough time to rebuild.
Conservatives have three tests. The point is not to surpass them. The challenge is to resist the urge to deliberately fail them.
