Avo go at this: Aussie exports fuel hopes for new year
Avocados, noodles, cotton candy grapes and beef are among Australian agriculture’s top performers, while farmers are hoping for calmer weather and political conditions in the new year.
There are generally positive prospects for the national sector in the first half of 2026, but climate and international trade will remain on manufacturers’ minds.
US President Donald Trump’s approach to tariffs has created volatile conditions for farmers in 2025, with uncertainty likely to continue for the next six months, according to Bendigo Bank’s outlook.
There were also mixed forecasts on the weather front, with a warm start to the new year expected and below-average rainfall across much of Australia, apart from parts of Queensland, according to the weather bureau.
The bank’s report said combined political and climate scenarios “could significantly benefit or hinder the sector as we progress through the first half of 2026.”
Australian beef has had a bumper year in agriculture, with exports 15 per cent higher than in 2024, driven by strong demand from major markets such as the US, China and Japan.
In the outlook released on Tuesday morning, it was stated that above-average rainfall expected in the cattle regions of Australia’s north and dry conditions in the south could narrow the market slightly.
“Ultimately, the export situation for Australia remains positive and will likely continue to see these strong volumes in the first half of 2026,” the report said.
In the crop area, total winter production in 2025/26 is expected to reach over 62 million tonnes, up 12 percent on mid-year forecasts.
The result will be the third largest exports on record in the first quarter of the financial year, with barley and canola leading exports.
Grain demand from southeast Asia was expected to rise sharply due to early season interest in noodle wheat and high-protein varieties.
Western Australian avocado growers have had a bumper season and the state is forecast to nearly double its 2024/25 harvest to 60,000 tonnes.
While domestic consumption of avocados is expected to exceed 5 kg per capita for the first time in 2026, growers are also targeting markets in Japan and Thailand.
Table grape producers benefited from better trade access to Japan, where sweet and juicy cotton candy grapes were winners.
The varroa mite, a parasite that feeds on honeybees, has created pollination problems and affected apple and almond crops, increasing costs for producers.
“Despite these challenges, the Australian fruit and nut sectors will continue to receive support from positive trading conditions and strong yield outlooks.”
