A guide to polling on California’s redistricting measure

California-Slaps-Back initiative offer 50, Gov. It leads to a comfortable victory on November 4, which has an effort to get even with a Slam Dunk and Texas for Gavin Newsom.

Or not.

In fact, a highly competitive competition between those who want to balance GOP’s shameless power and the competitors of the democrats’ retaliation Gerrymander – many voters value California’s independent redistribution commission and still make up their minds.

Obviously, both things can’t be right, but which?

This depends on which surveys you choose to believe.

Hate a gap of political addicts and news organizations that serve their needs. So there is no lack of drilling that claims to show where the California’s heads were just six weeks before the election day – in reality.

Newsom’s questionnaire gave results showing a great winning proportion. One three Berkeley/La Times survey showed a much closer competition with support below the vital 50% sign. Others give the measure a solid bullet.

All surveys are not created equal.

“It is really important how a survey was conducted,” he said. Pew Research CenterOne of the best flight polls in the country. “This is especially true today, when the response rates are too low [and] It is especially difficult to reach people by phone. You should really think about how it is done, where it comes from, who does it, what their motivation is. “

Know how this field has long been readers, if you have for a long time, your friendly corner printer feels about horse racing surveys. Our best advice always remains the same: ignore them.

Walk. Read a book. Cook a group of muffin. Even better, take some time Educate yourself about pros and cons California’s problem, then make a conscious decision.

However, recognizing that the sun will continue to rise and settled, there are some suggestions on how to analyze the outputs of the tides and the flow of the surveyors and experts to a willing and fiery audience.

The most important thing to remember is the reality of the glad tidings, flawless estimates or non -applicable fate carved in the stone. Even the best survey is nothing more than a educated prediction of what is possible.

However, there are ways to evaluate the quality of the surveys and to determine which of them are best consumed with a healthy salt roller and which should be completely rejected.

Given the opportunity, take a look at the methodology that includes the number of people participating in the survey, the duration of the survey and whether the interviews have been conducted in more than one language – usually in fine printing -.

Size is important.

Mark Dicamillo, a co -operation with the Non -Partizan Berkeley IGS Survey and Times, said, “While you are trying to communicate with random people, you take certain parts of the people instead of the general population”. “So, what should be to represent the general population of a questionnaire … You need big examples.”

The reason why these expensive and some surveys examine the number of people they interview.

The most conscientious surveyors make important time and effort to find out how to model voters – how to best reflect the ultimate composition of voters. After finishing their interviews, they weigh the result to see that young and old men and women contain the appropriate share of young and old men and women based on census data.

The interviewers can then adjust these results to the percentage of each group they believe will appear for a specific choice.

The more people interview with a survey, the more likely the likelihood of making a representative sampling.

Therefore, the duration of a survey is something to be considered. The longer a survey lasts – or if they go out as they say at work – the higher the chances of reflecting the final participation.

In a multilingual state like California, it is also important that a survey is not only conducted in English. Doing this is the risks that weigh a significant portion of voters; Lack of English fluency should not be confused with lack of political participation.

“A person does not need to speak English to vote,” said Keeter from the Pew Research Center, “he said. “And some population in the United States for a long time may be very well -established voters, especially in the case of immigrant groups, but they may still not be competent in English when conducting a comfortable survey.”

It is also important to know how a questionnaire problem is expressed, and when it comes to voting compass, it is also important to know how voters define the subject to decide. How closely does the survey follow the ballot? Is there any prejudice brought to the survey? (“Can you support this precaution by knowing that advocates abuse small animals and encourage gum disease?”)

Something to be followed: Is it carried out for a candidate or group that pushed a particular agenda by a political party or a certain agenda? If so, be very skeptical. There is every reason to publish selective or unilateral findings.

Transparency is the key. A good questionnaire will show his work as they said in the classroom. If they do not, there is a good reason to question their findings and you should do well.

A logical person does not put anything on his body without 100% sure his content. Treat your brain with the same care.