Goldman Sachs drops shocking call on the economy through 2030
The US economy has continued, but it is impossible to ignore the developing growth mixture.
After the recession of the Pandemik, labor productivity withdrawn, increased by 2.3% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024, and pushed the output even as the hours cooled down.
Under the surface, total factor productivity increased by 1.3% in non -agricultural enterprises last year and underlined the effect of technology and process upgrades.
A significant portion of this increase is linked to the Early Stage AI adoption by doubleing in automation and digital workflows. On the Flip side, economists warn that gains are not irregular and wide -based.
However, close -term numbers indicate a major volatility. Gdyih Contracted with -0.5 % It was annual in the quarter 2025 and then returned to +3.3% in the second quarter and started to increase from an import.
OECD Mandals while looking forward The growth of the USA is 1.8% In 2025, under 2.8% recorded in 2024, behind the tariffs and labor winds, although the AI -connected Capex provided some offset.
With this background, Goldman Sachs analysts left a Wall Street note about AI’s long -term role in reshaping the base line growth in the rest of the decade.
It comes with real long -term results for calls, politics, profit and positioning.
Goldman Sachs reshaped AI as a macro force.
Goldman analysts are now waiting for the US potential GDP growth to rise to at least 2.1% for the rest of the decade, behind the stronger AI -led productivity gains.
“Artificial intelligence will increase its productivity increase at the end of 2029 to 1.7% and then to 1.9% in the early 2030s,” he wrote. This change supports GDP growth between 2.1% and 2.3% on the pre -pandemic base line.
Recent history supports.
Goldman analyst Manuel Abecasis said:
Since 2019, labor productivity across economy increased by 1.6% per year and increased by 1.2% of the pre -pandemic average. At the same time, the raised migration in 2022-2024 increased its annual labor growth to 0.8% since 2019 (against 0.6% before pandemin).
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Earlier this year, Goldman estimated that AI could increase the global GDP by 7%and about 7 trillion dollars in the next decade and that $ 160 billion could be added to the “real GDP v by means of AI and investment.
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The productivity increase was 1.7% until 2029 and then 1.9% in the early 2030s.
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Potential US GDP growth is fixed by 2.1% to 2.3% and progresses above pandemic norms.
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Migration and high labor growth also strengthen the base line.
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Goldman sees that AI adds $ 7 trillion globally, and $ 160 billion is already in the game.
