Kemi Badenoch has put her stamp on the Tory leadership with big tax reveal – but will it be enough to save her?
For for much of the Tory conference in Manchester, the world’s most successful democratic party looked like it was going down the drain.
Key shadow ministers were giving their speeches to at least a few empty seats, businesses had abandoned the party in terms of stands and there were wide open spaces at the sparsely attended Manchester Central conference centre; The buzz of previous years has been replaced by a resounding despair.
The tails for shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick, who many believe will replace Tory leader Kemi Badenoch in the coming months, were only for side events.
He seemed to be the man of the moment, the speaker of choice for anyone looking to host an event, a real crowd-puller.
The debate over Ms Badenoch’s future dominated the conversation among members and MPs alike for four days, although her supporters made sure she did not act like Andy Burnham and make the conference about the leadership battle.
While those who fled Manchester before Ms Badenoch’s speech will think her days as leader are numbered, those who stay for the opening speech on Wednesday morning – which sees a flurry of eye-catching, vote-winning promises – will have seen a rejuvenated Ms Badenoch breathing new life into this tired party.
To keep Kemi or not to keep Kemi?
The main discussion at the conference did not appear to focus on the qualities of the beleaguered leader. Even those who didn’t want a change of leader seemed resigned to the fact that he looked mediocre at best.
Actually, Independent It was at several private meetings where the debate was over whether voters would forgive the party changing leaders again on such short notice, or whether the Conservatives needed someone who could do the job, no matter what that might look like.
This was not the biggest vote of confidence in a woman elected head of the party less than a year ago; But such is the level of patience in modern politics.
A supportive MP who did not want the leader to change said: “Well, it was always going to be a work in progress, we need to give it time.”
But another said: “We don’t have time.”
A party on life support
The question was whether the party was facing an “extinction event” or was already dead.
The More Commons poll was not encouraging in the least, showing Reform on 33 per cent, Labor on 20 per cent and the Conservatives on 19 per cent, one of the most generous results for the Conservatives.
The Nigel Farage issue has always hung in the debate; Could he defeat the most formidable and charismatic man in British politics?
A senior Tory suggested Ms Badenoch was simply “lazy” and “not willing to do the work required”.
While the debates were generally cordial, they frequently became heated and, in the cases of a few MPs, almost escalated into full-blown violence.
speech of your life
In fact, Ms. Badenoch was supposed to turn this issue on its head in her opening statement.
He had to show that he had the vision and policies to unite a fractured party, confirm that he was the right leader and give the Conservatives hope for a significant recovery.
When she took the stage in a much smaller space than usual, the prolonged standing ovation for her arrival was probably more hope than expectation.
And yet, when things got bad, when all seemed bad and lost, Miss Badenoch succeeded.
Last year he said there would be no policy announcements for two years, but he also decided to do so in a speech that showed him at his most confident and relaxed.
He said he wanted to think things through before announcing policies, and he appeared to have done just that.
We already knew about his plan to abandon the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), but also came promises to repeal the family farm tax, the VAT on private school fees and the tax raid on family businesses; These were policies that the Conservative Party had been vocally criticizing since they were announced by the government.
All of this was not entirely surprising, as was his promise to overturn employment rights legislation.
But then came a big event. As the British Medical Association prepares for a tearful protest over a 29 per cent pay rise, he has said he will ban doctors from striking. You could feel the sudden spark in the room.
Then came the decision to end business rates for high street stores. On the 100th anniversary of Margaret Thatcher’s birth, it seemed a fitting tribute as the former prime minister spent her formative years in her father’s corner shop.
More importantly, this is something the last Tory government should have done years ago as online alternatives such as Amazon left the high street in ruins.
Perhaps nothing can symbolize the fact that the Conservative Party is “under new leadership” and is a changed party.
But Ms. Badenoch wasn’t done. Finally, with a flourish, he announced something all Tories could support: the abolition of stamp duty.
Homeownership and its promotion is perhaps the most Conservative of all policies. That’s exactly what Mrs Thatcher did. This was the moment when Mrs Badenoch sold council housing to tenants.
The cheers in the room were real. They finally had a policy to unite the party around him and take over the country (proposed last year, it should be said, by shadow housing secretary Sir James Cleverly, his former leadership rival).
Crucially, this wasn’t just copying Reformation and, unlike Farage’s policies, it looked on the surface like something that needed to be carefully worked out, even if it would cost around £12bn a year.
Ms Badenoch’s “I believe” conclusion of low taxes, strong borders, the biological identification of women (she can’t escape her culture war obsession) and freedom of speech are all things the 2025 Conservative Party could get behind the more right-wing Party.
Better than Starmer
This was a departure from his speech last week, when Keir Starmer launched a sustained attack on Reformation to get through a difficult conference and unite his party.
Instead, Ms Badenoch made little mention of a return to Reform’s traditional preference for Labor over the Conservative Party.
But what he did offer was a confident vision and policy platform that would at least give his party a chance and answer many (though not all) of his critics’ questions.
In fact, it was an indication that Ms Badenoch felt confident enough to check her potential leadership rival at least three times.
Ironically, his opponent Mr Jenrick has been talking all week about the need for change without saying what it is. Ms Badenoch has detailed this change and it may now be enough to allow her to lead her party at the next election. Only time will tell if he has a fighting chance.
