Ceasefire deal a major breakthrough, but war not over yet

The ceasefire and hostage agreement between Israel and Hamas, announced after intense negotiations in Egypt, is a long-awaited breakthrough that brings them closer to ending the two-year war in Gaza.

But despite the momentum, there’s no guarantee this will happen.

The key difference in these efforts was the personal intervention of President Donald Trump, who pressured not only Hamas but also Israel for a deal. This is a major diplomatic victory for someone who wants to be seen as the man who ends the war and be rewarded for it in the process.

Israel started the war in Gaza on October 7, 2023, in response to Hamas’ attacks. Approximately 1,200 people, most of them Israeli civilians, were killed in the attacks and 251 people were taken hostage. The military offensive has killed more than 67,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians and more than 18,000 children, destroyed much of the land and sparked a devastating humanitarian crisis.

What was agreed to is the first phase of the plan that the president unveiled last week at the White House with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been accused of sabotaging efforts for a deal in the past.

This time, Trump, who is said to be impatient and irritated with Netanyahu, appears to have used the power only Americans have to influence Israel, leaving the prime minister no choice but to participate in the process.

Hamas, which Trump threatened to “completely destroy”, was also under intense pressure. Arab and Muslim countries embraced the president’s plan, and Egypt, Qatar and Türkiye participated heavily in the negotiations.

Details of the agreement have not yet been published, but the draft is that the remaining hostages will be released; 20 people are believed to be still alive on Sunday, while the remains of some 28 deceased captives will be returned in phases.

Hundreds of Palestinian prisoners will be released from Israeli prisons, Israeli troops will withdraw from parts of Gaza, and there will be an increase in humanitarian aid entering the region.

Trump has publicly stated his desire to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, which will be announced Friday, a deadline that could guide negotiations. Using his usual hyperbole on social media, he described the event as a “historic and unprecedented event” and “the first steps towards a strong, lasting and lasting peace.”

This is undoubtedly an important moment, but it does not give any certainty that a peace deal for Gaza will happen, as vital details still need to be worked out. These include Israel’s core demand that Hamas be disarmed, the extent of Israel’s withdrawal, and a plan for who will govern Gaza.

In Gaza, Palestinians celebrated the announcement at midnight, hoping for an end to their suffering. In Tel Aviv, people gathered in Hostages Square, which has become a symbol of the suffering of the captives.

Hamas knows that by releasing the hostages it will lose influence in the negotiations. He demanded guarantees that Israel would not continue fighting after his release, but he has reason to doubt: In March, Israel broke the ceasefire and returned to war with devastating air strikes.

But in Israel, a country exhausted by conflict, polls consistently show that most people want the conflict to end.

But Netanyahu still faces political obstacles. It relies on the support of ultra-nationalist ministers who have threatened to leave the coalition in the event of a deal that could lead to the collapse of the government; concern that many suspected led him to prolong the war. He has vowed to achieve “complete victory” against Hamas, and any deal will need to let him say he has done so.

Netanyahu called the announcement “a diplomatic, national and moral victory for the State of Israel.” In particular, it was noteworthy that, unlike Hamas, its statement did not say that it would end the war.