Iran is out in the cold as the Mideast unites in support of the Gaza ceasefire
CAIRO (AP) — At a time when the Middle East is generally welcoming Ceasefire in Israel-Hamas war Iran is experiencing one of its weakest moments since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Gaza.
Tehran carried out its own operation, in its own words “Axis of Resistance” for decades it has supported militant groups against Israel and the United States, and nations allied with it. But as Israel bombed the Gaza Strip, it also targeted senior leaders abroad of militant groups such as Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and even the top echelon of Iran’s military and nuclear program; killed many and hampered their ability to fight back.
Like President Donald Trump As he prepares for a Middle East trip where he will likely be praised by Israel and Arab countries, Iran still won’t be on the table Struggling to recover after 12 days of war in June.
How Tehran’s theocracy responds in the coming weeks and months will be crucial, whether that means reacting or trying to rebuild its faltering economy at home.
“Undoubtedly, this is not a proud moment for Iran,” said Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group. “The alliance system in the region has collapsed, but this does not mean that the ‘Axis of Resistance’ no longer exists.”
‘Like a bankrupt gambler’
Iranian state media has sought to portray the Gaza ceasefire as a victory for Hamas despite the war that has destroyed the Gaza Strip and killed more than 67,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, which did not distinguish between civilians and combatants but said about half of the dead were women and children.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry welcomed “any decision that guarantees an end to the genocide against Palestinians.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told state television on Saturday that Hamas had decided to accept the agreement and reiterated that Tehran “always supports any plans and actions that will lead to the stopping of Israel’s crimes, genocide, against the people of Gaza.”
But perhaps more pointedly, one of the advisors to Iran’s 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei suggested that a ceasefire would only lead to conflict elsewhere in the region.
“The beginning of a ceasefire in Gaza could be the end of a ceasefire behind the scenes elsewhere!” Ali Akbar Velayati, an advisor to Khamenei, wrote about X and cited Hezbollah, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels and Iraq.
The fear of new Israeli attacks, especially against Iran, remains serious in the minds of the public, as well as most Iranians. air defense systems were probably destroyed by Israel in June. Khamenei did not continue his weekly speaking routine. Without explanation, Iran refrained from holding a major military commemoration ceremony in September marking the end of the Iran-Iraq war, where senior officials watched drones and missile launchers pass by.
of Iran The economy also suffered from international sanctions and as global energy prices fall.
“Iran has always focused on its own interests, we no longer have resources, our economy has weakened,” said Tehran-based analyst Saeed Leilaz. “Our support for Hamas was a reaction to the United States shifting the conflict away from our borders.”
Others are less optimistic.
“Iran is like a gambler who went bankrupt after winning a small amount of money in the first round,” said Amir Kazemi, a university student in Tehran. “Iran was happy when Hamas attacked Israel. But now, after the ceasefire, Iran finds nothing in its pocket.”
The Middle East looks very different
In the years immediately following Iran’s revolutionHis theocratic government sought to export Shia revolutionary ideology more widely in the Middle East. This evolved into an effort to provide more of a level of deterrence after the devastating war with Iraq in the 1980s, when surrounding Arab nations purchased advanced American bombs, warplanes and tanks that Tehran could not access due to sanctions.
The US military’s presence in the Persian Gulf also expanded following: 1991 Gulf WarIn response to Tehran’s endless anger, Arab countries grant base rights to American forces.
The peak of the “Axis of Resistance” came in the chaotic years after the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and Yemen’s subsequent descent into civil war. Then he could rely on Hezbollah, Syrian autocrat Bashar al-Assad, the Houthis, Iraqi militant groups, and even Hamas, a Sunni militant group.
The Middle East looks very different today.
in Syria, Rebels toppled Assad last year While Israeli strikes killed senior leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas, Iraqi militant groups faded into the background. While Yemen’s Houthis still have the capacity to launch attacks against Israel Commercial shipping in the Red Sea corridorThey now find themselves the target of increasingly precise Israeli attacks.
And the 12-day war in June resulted in Iran likely no longer enriching uranium for its nuclear program. The West has long worried that it could be weaponized.
‘Regional influence is collapsing’
Iran, meanwhile, has yet to receive major support from China or Russia, despite supplying Beijing with possibly discounted oil and Moscow with the drones it uses in its war against Ukraine. Tehran also avoided confrontation Women increasingly abandoning the hijab or headscarfinstead executing the prisoners they already have at a pace not seen in decades.
“The ceasefire is a reflection of Tehran’s collapsing regional influence following the dissolution of its long-powerful ‘Axis of Resistance’ since 2024,” said Ali Fathollah-Nejad, director of the Berlin-based Center for the Middle East and Global Order. “The ceasefire will free up Israel’s military capabilities that can be used against Iranian interests, whether against Hezbollah in Lebanon or directly against Iran.”
Trump, on the other hand, evaluated Iran’s acceptance of the ceasefire as “great” news. However, no steps have been taken to renew public negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear program.
“Time is not on Iran’s side, but their problem is that no one is giving them an exit ramp,” Vaez said. But whether Tehran will use this ramp remains a question mark, as Tehran leaders are still debating what to do next.
___
Associated Press writer Nasser Karimi in Tehran, Iran, contributed to this report.
___
EDITOR’S NOTE — Jon GambrellThe Associated Press’ Gulf and Iran news director has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and elsewhere in the Middle East, and the world more broadly since joining the AP in 2006.
