In Venezuela’s ‘darkest hours’, will peace prize boost opposition or backfire? | Venezuela

IAs a nationwide power outage plunged Venezuela into darkness in March 2019, hundreds of citizens gathered at a basketball court in the city of Maracaibo to listen to their leaders promise to save them from this darkness.

“We are literally living in our darkest hour. But these are also our brightest times,” María Corina Machado told fans who used their cell phones to brighten up the night.

Six and a half years later, on Friday, Machado used almost the same words to celebrate winning the Nobel peace prize for his “extraordinary” – but incomplete – struggle against Venezuela’s “brutal, authoritarian state” under president Nicolás Maduro.

“We are living in the darkest hours. But there is also tremendous hope.” Machado explained. after hearing the news, before vowing, “Venezuela will be free.”

For all Machado’s relentless optimism, one question remained after Friday’s surprise announcement in Oslo: Was he right this time? Would receiving the prestigious award further Machado’s dogged campaign to oust Maduro, or could it backfire and lead to greater pressure from the autocrat’s feared security forces?

International supporters have expressed confidence that political change is coming in a country that has descended into authoritarianism and economic collapse since Maduro replaced Hugo Chavez in 2013, with nearly 8 million citizens fleeing abroad. “The thirst for democracy always prevails,” European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen wrote.

Carlos Lizarralde, author of a book about Venezuela’s collapse, said the award would strengthen Machado by “strengthening his position in the eyes of the international community.” … like He is the only credible opposition leader in the South American country.

“A Nobel laureate is, in many ways, the secular equivalent of a living saint. This perfectly complements his quasi-religious public image,” Lizarralde said of Machado, a devout Catholic who attended rallies wearing rosaries and a cross around his neck before going into hiding after last year’s fraudulent presidential election.

Others are more skeptical. Tulane University Venezuela expert David Smilde said the award “will certainly bring more international attention to the Venezuelan conflict and perhaps [create] More determination to get this done.

“But judging by past Nobel winners, it will not be fundamental,” Smilde added, noting that the 1994 prize, shared by Yasser Arafat, Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Rabin, did not fundamentally restructure the interests and forces involved in the Middle East conflict.

Political scientist Ronald Krebs, who has studied the impact of Nobel peace prizes awarded in the hope of encouraging political change in authoritarian countries, said his research shows they are rarely successful.

Krebs referenced Chinese poet and activist Liu Xiaobo, who received the award in 2010 while in prison; It was a decision Beijing called “anti-China nonsense.” Liu died seven years later, while still in custody and with his homeland having turned into an even more repressive one-party state under the rule of Communist party leader Xi Jinping.

In 2003, Iranian activist Shirin Ebadi was honored for this award. struggle for democracy and human rights. Krebs said being an honoree “insulated” Ebadi from persecution, as Tehran feared imprisoning such a high-profile figure. “But this did absolutely nothing for those who were similarly unprotected… they were even further oppressed because of the Nobel peace prize,” he said.

Krebs said the peace prizes could inspire human rights defenders to “come forward with greater force.” “[But] It also gives the oppressive regime greater incentive to put pressure on those who want to effect change. [So] It creates a truly problematic and worrying dynamic… which ultimately works against those advocating domestic political change… The road to hell is paved with good intentions.”

Allies hope Machado’s reward will make him “bulletproof” against regime reprisals. But Krebs said it was “extraordinarily doubtful” that this would produce democratic change.

Maduro’s mentor Andrés Izarra, a former minister of Chavez, was also skeptical, but said Venezuela’s authoritarian president faces the biggest challenge of his 12-year reign.

Isolated internationally after being accused of stealing last year’s election from Machado ally Edmundo González, Maduro also faces an unprecedented US pressure campaign that many suspect is aimed at forcing regime change.

Since August, Donald Trump has ordered a massive naval reinforcement off Venezuela’s Caribbean coast, and there have been a series of deadly attacks on boats allegedly smuggling Venezuelan drugs. “The chances of displacement have never been clearer [Maduro] from power than it is now,” Izarra said.

But the former minister rejected the idea that Trump’s pressure campaign would “break” the Maduro regime by sparking a military rebellion. Izarra was also skeptical that Trump would invade. “What’s happening in the Caribbean is a regime change operation… but it’s a performance-oriented operation,” Izarra said, designed to force Maduro to make concessions during secret talks he believes took place between U.S. and Venezuelan officials.

“All this will be resolved automatically at the negotiating table,” Izarra predicted. Maduro and his allies would “never surrender power voluntarily,” but equally Trump would never alienate the anti-interventionist Maga movement by knocking it down. “They don’t want war forever. They don’t want Vietnam. They don’t want Iraq,” Izarra said.

Perhaps the only certainty is the famously stubborn Machado. Conservative who admires Margaret Thatcher It seems unlikely that this country, known as the “Iron Lady” of Venezuela, will make a comeback.

“He’s a real fighter,” Lizarralde said, predicting Machado will continue fighting. “In his mind it’s an epic struggle between good and evil… and he [is convinced she] It represents good.”