As Japan’s opposition circles around a unity bid, Takaichi’s route to power narrows
Newly elected leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP), Sanae Takaichi, shakes hands with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba after winning the LDP leadership election in Tokyo, Japan, October 04, 2025.
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Under normal circumstances in Japan, the leader of the ruling party would be the prime minister, especially between election periods.
But these are not normal times in Tokyo; Outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba continues to serve temporarily after resigning on September 7.
Sanae Takaichi, the current head of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party and poised to become the country’s first female prime minister, faces a tougher road to power after the sudden departure of coalition partner Komeito.
Komeito’s sudden withdrawal from the ruling coalition on October 10 left the LDP with an even smaller minority in the Diet, Japan’s parliament, and opened the door to a potential opposition upset.
The vote to elect the next prime minister was originally scheduled to take place on Wednesday, but Komeito’s withdrawal caused the extraordinary session of the diet to be postponed until October 21. local media reports.
Potential union candidate
Before the collapse of the ruling coalition last Friday, opposition unity seemed unlikely.
But on the weekend Japan Times reported The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) plans to seek Komeito’s support for a joint prime ministerial candidate, he said.
Meanwhile, the People’s Democratic Party (DPP), the fourth largest party in the Lower House, rejected the possibility of forming a new coalition with the LDP. DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki reportedly said he would be willing to serve as Prime Minister if nominated by the CDP.
Other local media reports there is also in question Tamaki may emerge as a compromise candidate for the opposition to unite around him.
The LDP remains the largest voting bloc in parliament, with 196 seats in the 465-seat Lower House.
A note from Bank of America said that if no candidate wins an absolute majority, attention will focus on the second round of the two-stage prime ballot, which will pit the top two finishers of the first ballot against each other. If the Lower and Upper House elect different candidates, the Lower House’s election takes precedence.
“Despite their efforts to unite, the three major opposition parties…together hold more seats than the LDP. Therefore, we need to monitor the debate over which parties (including Komeito) plan to support in the second round of voting,” the BofA note said.
If CDP, DPP and Nippon Ishin merge, they will have 210 seats; That number is still short of the 233 seats needed for a majority, but will surpass the 196 seats the LDP holds.
A blessing in disguise?
But some analysts say the collapse of the ruling coalition could be a blessing in disguise for the LDP.
Tomohiko Taniguchi, Special Advisor at the Fujitsu Center for Future Studies, told CNBC: The end of the LDP-Komeito partnership could free the LDP to push for long-delayed policy goals. “Squawk Box Asia.”
He noted that while Komeito was in the Japanese Cabinet, the LDP had to make concessions, especially when it came to social issues.
“But with Komeito now abolished, the LDP under Takaichi, if he becomes Prime Minister, will be able to pursue policies that the LDP has long wanted to pursue, including some tax cuts and changes to the tax system,” Taniguchi said.
Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of the People’s Democratic Party, in front of the National Diet building in Tokyo, Japan, on Friday, August 1, 2025.
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Jesper Koll, an expert manager at Monex Group, said Komeito had “overstepped its mark” for the LDP with its dwindling support.
“Takaichi is pushing the issue and thus essentially setting the direction for a new LDP,” Koll said.
However, other analysts were more critical of Takaichi. Quantum Strategy’s note dated November 13 stated that Takaichi’s leadership was floundering and said that the LDP “had a full pork breakfast” by losing its coalition partner of 26 years.
Quantum warned that even if he secures the premiership, he could be a “lame duck” leader with limited management skills.
If early elections are not held, the next general election is planned to be held by October 2028.
