Chalmers urged to solve a productivity problem that may not exist

As Austin reported, experts who bring the Labor Government about productivity misunderstand everything.

The Albanian government is under pressure to do something about productivity in Australia. He’s determined to do this.

But what if everything is okay? What if the economy is muttering well, but the agencies do not measure things correctly?

Definitions and Date

Labor Efficiency is defined by the Statistical Office (Pessimistic) like ‘The ratio between the economic output and the total input of the factors to achieve this’. They divide by dividing into the total hours of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) every three months.

Historically, this was not an important metric, and rarely it was not the political point score. Due to local activities such as global recessions or comprehensive floods, it occasionally increased steadily with Blips, regardless of the ruling party.

Between the first quarter of 1996 (the first quarter) and the 4th quarter of 1999, there were 15 flat every three months rises. Later, between 2011 and 2016, only one of these 21 quarters was a significant decline. Therefore, automation and advanced, increasing productivity were accepted.

If we examine 38 developed OECD Today, members, some still like this benign situation. The graph below, productivity Although there is some confusion due to Covid, it is rising from 2016 to 2025.

If this is normal, Australia’s experience has been serious since 2016. After the registrations began in the 1970s, productivity spread between 2016-2019. During Covid, he went crazy with an abnormal fluctuation and has decreased since then. For the last three quarters, it was flattened in 99.5 index points far below the 2020 levels.

This is not like the progress of the countries in the first graph. Strange! See the table below. (The graphics here are all courtesy Trade economy.)

Naturally, productivity from 2016 to 2019 gave fuel that the Morrison government failed to critics. There were already many other ammunitions, the economy is more than 60 the worst consequences of all time.

Since the change of the government in May 2022, the productivity, as the graphiced revealed, has been worried again. This provoked the condemnation of labor.

Albo and Dr Jim under constant attack

The titles published in recent weeks include:

‘The worst productivity in the history of the nation: the economic management of the Labor Party was criticized’ – Sky NewsJune 2025;
‘Chalmers’ Super Tax will send productivity backwards’ – Financial review23 June 2025;
‘Australia’s energy policies reduce efficiency and living standards’ – Canberra daily25 June 2025;
‘Stop Profigate Expenditures: Chalmers’ productivity round table shows that it is “desperate for money” – Herald SunJune 2025; And
‘A Australian productivity was trapped in death spiral’ – MacroeconomicsMay 1, 2025.

Some of them are constructive attempts, others are diatribs from Partizan Nutters. It assumes that all Australia’s current experience is abnormal and unwanted.

Indications that everything is fine

In fact, the Australian economy explodes. Ever since the records are kept inflation Under 3 % and unemployed The ratio of 4.2% for ten months. Spending Eating outside, cosmetics, jewelry and other luxury are at the highest level of all time. Sales housesnew cars and special aeroplane Continue settings.

Australia is now less than 5%and the only economy of the world presence More than $ 400,000 per person. The only economy with a triple-a loan ratingInflation is below 2.4%and continuous GDP growth The last three years.

If productivity fell from a cliff nine years ago, such a profile is impossible. Australians are likely to be productive, but the formula no longer reflects it.

Experience abroad

Adding weight to this thesis observes that several comparable economies shares Australia’s unique productivity orbit. These include France, Canada, the United Kingdom and Italy. See. Blue graphics, below.

In five of these economies, the productivity, which was flattened from 2016 to 2019, rose during Covid, and then decreased after 2022. Graphics for New Zealand, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg and Greece.

Austria, Estonia, Czech Republic and Lithuania are among the economies whose productivity is not flattened before Covid, but after 2022.

It makes sense of chaos

For this reason, it is clear that the pre -2016 period of the universal close line increases and Australia is at work elsewhere.

A theory is that since 2016, it has shifted to private houses, especially after Covid.

Australian National Disability Insurance Program (NDIS) Provided millions of hours of valuable home care for patients with disabilities. If no money changes hands, the Statistics Office may not be able to record it.

The same thing is England’s National Health Service (Nhs), Canada health care System and equivalent schemes in other places.

Other non -sertar professions include home education, child care, landlords and some home -based businesses in the service sector. All of these are productive and often extremely recycled – but not always reflected in the data.

Forward road

In national accounts, a clue about the suitability of this theory emerged published At the beginning of June. ABS recommends this ‘June quarter 2025 broadcasting will begin labor productivity estimates for the total non -market sector’. This September.