Study projects deaths due to pancreatic, colorectal and breast cancers to rise by 2030 in India
A recent disease prediction study analyzing data from the Global Cancer Observatory (GCO) showed an increase in cancers linked to lifestyle and metabolic factors and a decrease in infection-related and tobacco-related cancers.
The study, which estimates the future burden of 23 major cancer types by 2030, was published this week in BMJ Open.
future burden
The study, which aimed to estimate the future burden of cancer deaths in India by estimating age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) for 23 major types of cancer by 2030, found an ongoing epidemiological transition, namely a clear shift towards cancers associated with lifestyle and economic development.
ASMR is a way to fairly compare death rates between populations with different age structures. Using aggregated, national-level cancer mortality data for the Indian population from 2000 to 2019, the authors used the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict ASMR for 23 major cancer types by 2030.
It is led by researchers and oncologists from MS Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences, Bengaluru; Amrita Institute of Medical Sciences and Research Centre, Kochi; Great Lakes Institute of Management, Chennai and Department of Statistics, Assam University, Silchar – the study found that mortality rates due to colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer among men are expected to increase by 6.55% and 9.59% respectively from 2025 to 2030. Among women, the highest increase from 2025 to 2030 is expected to be in breast cancer, followed by lung, colorectal cancer, pancreatic, ovarian, kidney and lymphomas.
What will decrease
However, the study’s lead author, Denny John from MS Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences, said that deaths from mouth and pharynx cancers and bladder cancer among both genders are projected to decrease between 2000 and 2030 due to reductions in tobacco use and indoor air pollution.
“The study provides the first comprehensive, long-term estimate of age-standardized mortality rates for 23 types of cancer in India using a robust time series approach. We used an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for cancer prediction in the country, which is capable of greater prediction and applicability,” said John. Hindu on Tuesday.
“ASMR of 23 major cancer types was chosen to predict cancer deaths because this measurement allows for a more accurate comparison of the risk of death in different periods, regardless of the impact of population aging, by accounting for changes in the age structure of the population over time. Projections of cancer deaths are useful for clinicians, researchers, healthcare managers and policy makers in planning the allocation of facilities, equipment and personnel in the country.” “It will be useful,” he said.
primary prevention
Narassima MS, Assistant Professor at Great Lakes Institute of Management, Chennai, said the analysis was based on national-level estimates from the Global Cancer Observatory, which could mask significant subnational and regional heterogeneity in cancer patterns across states.
Highlighting the public health implications, K. Pavithran, Professor and Head, Department of Medical Oncology, Amrita Institute of Medical Sciences and Research Centre, said the study underlines the importance of strengthening primary prevention and early detection strategies, especially for cancers with rapidly increasing prognoses, such as breast and colorectal cancer.
“Improving early diagnosis through expanded screening programs such as mammography and colonoscopy and improving diagnostic infrastructure in rural and underserved areas is crucial,” the professor said.
Case-specific forecast
The authors highlight the need for future research to use State-specific estimates to facilitate the development of tailored interventions at the regional level, as estimates based on national-level estimates may mask important disparities at the State level.
It was published – 22 October 2025 07:00 IST
