Keir Starmer prepares to miss key green target in effort to keep energy bills down | Politics

Sources have told the Guardian that ministers are considering abandoning one of their central green pledges in a bid to keep energy bills low.

Keir Starmer is set to miss his own target to remove almost all fossil fuels from the UK’s electricity supply by 2030 if it turns out to be much more expensive than building gas power, government insiders say.

The issue will come to a head in a few weeks when energy secretary Ed Miliband decides how much renewable energy will be brought on board over the next few years. Allies say Miliband is willing to buy less than experts say to meet his 2030 target if it causes energy bills to rise much higher than their current levels.

Concerns are growing in Downing Street that the cost of living is fueling the rise of Reform UK, which is leading in national polls and is expected to take the Welsh Senedd seat of Caerphilly in this week’s by-election.

A government insider said: “There is a choice about how much you are willing to pay for the next step. [renewables] The auction round that is key to reaching 2030. “If it’s a choice between hitting the target and overpaying or missing the target and keeping costs low, we’re going to miss it.”

Officials noted Miliband’s comments last week. spoke at an energy industry conference: “We will not buy at any price. If certain technologies are not competitive we will look elsewhere. We will make long-term decisions to secure the right amount of capacity for the country at the right price.”

Starmer committed to meeting the clean energy target last year. “change plan”. The Prime Minister said at the time that the plan would “make the UK a clean energy superpower and accelerate towards net zero”.

To hit the target, experts say Miliband will need to commission a record 8 gigawatts of new electricity generation in the current auction round. The government sets subsidy levels by asking renewable companies to submit bids and then commissioning projects that promise the cheapest clean energy.

The energy minister is in talks with Chancellor Rachel Reeves about how much to spend on the rollout round.

But energy industry experts say higher interest rates and the sheer amount of electricity that needs to be put on stream will likely push prices beyond what it would cost to produce an equivalent amount of gas power.

Dieter Helm, professor of economic policy at Oxford University, said Miliband was “deceived” if he thought he could reduce energy bills by turning to clean energy by 2030. “The reality is that net zero by 2030 is expensive, and as we race towards that the result will be even higher costs. The price isn’t falling; it’s rising.”

State-owned power system operator NESO, which operates the electricity grid, recently warned: “Speed ​​should be the primary goal in a short and shrinking time frame. But this cannot come at the expense of public consent or excessive cost, as this would mean that the clean energy goal would be self-defeating.”

Some officials in Downing Street and the Treasury want the prime minister, who has previously pledged to cut bills by £300, to publicly lower the 2030 target as a signal to both voters and the energy sector that he will not allow bills to rise.

Starmer resists this and instead appears willing to simply miss the target rather than flatly deny it. A government official said: “The Prime Minister has made this central to one of his duties. He will not give it up now.”

Another insider said: “It would be really stupid to publicly change the target; even if we accept the higher risk, that target will not be achieved.”

Green experts also warn that silently or publicly abandoning the goal will diminish business confidence.

Jess Ralston, energy analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said: “Renewables provided nearly half of our electricity last year and we have the world’s second largest market for offshore wind. Drastic policy changes, as we have seen in the US, could jeopardize this investment and these jobs.”

Miliband’s allies insist there will be other ways to ensure the electricity grid is almost completely carbon-free by 2030, even if it does not commission all 8GW of power in January. These include building more batteries to reduce the amount of new capacity that needs to be built and encouraging people to use less electricity at peak times.

But industry experts say the 2030 target will be nearly unachievable without the extra renewable energy they say should be brought online in January. One said: “There are other ways to add up the totals, but unless you get close to 8GW of new power this round, you’re unlikely to hit the 2030 target.”

A government spokesman said: “The government is fully committed to delivering clean energy by 2030 because this is how we provide a system that can reduce consumers’ bills.”