Plaid Cymru wins Caerphilly by-election for Welsh Parliament

Plaid Cymru claimed victory in the Welsh Parliament by-election as Labor suffered its first parliamentary defeat in Caerphilly for 100 years.

Nigel Farage’s Reform promised to “throw it all away” in the campaign, but its candidate Llŷr Powell could only come in second place behind Plaid’s Lindsay Whittle, who received 47% of the vote with a majority of 3,848 votes.

The result saw a 27 per cent swing for Labour, which has held the seat at Westminster since the 1920s and in the Senedd since the turn of the century.

Whittle vowed to work as “a Trojan horse for every man, woman and child” and said he was proud to call Caerphilly home.

Celebrating victory in front of the town’s goal, he said: “I believe the world is watching Wales, a rising nation that is starting to take control of our lives again.”

Tartan leader Rhun ap Iorwerth, who hopes to form the next Welsh government in May’s Senedd elections, said the party “can win anywhere in Wales now” but “doesn’t take anything for granted”.

“This is a very important win, a historic victory for Caerphilly, for Plaid Cymru and for the history of Welsh politics,” he added.

Plaid Cymru, which celebrated its 100th anniversary in the summer, is seen as being on the centre-left of Welsh politics.

Gaining independence for Wales has long been an article of faith for activists.

But ap Iorwerth downplays independence for now, promising a plan but not in the first period Any government led by Plaid.

Labor First Minister Eluned Morgan told BBC Wales that she spoke to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer on Friday morning and realized “there is a responsibility in Wales to help us” following the party’s humiliation.

He acknowledged it was a “bad outcome for the Labor Party” but insisted he would not resign.

Whittle, a former Caerphilly council leader and councilor for nearly 50 years, previously served as representative of the South Wales East region in Cardiff Bay between 2011 and 2016.

He paid an emotional tribute to the late Caerphilly Senedd Member (MS) Hefin David, whose death triggered the by-election, saying his “kindness” was the “guiding spirit” of his campaign.

In his victory speech to enthusiastic supporters on the night, Whittle said: “Listen Westminster, Caerphilly and Wales are telling you we want a better deal.”

Ap Iorwerth said Caerphilly voters “chose hope over division and choose progress over the tired status quo and support Plaid Cymru’s positive, pro-Welsh vision”.

Turnout was just over 50% compared to the national average of Senedd votes, which never rose above 50%; In Caerphilly it was higher than 2021’s 44%.

Reform received just 495 votes four years ago but found itself in a battle with Plaid Cymru, which came in second with 36%.

Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe came third, winning just 11% of the vote.

A number of senior figures from the party have visited the constituency in the last few days, including Farage, who campaigned in Caerphilly on Thursday.

Despite the result, Llŷr Powell said he thought Reformation would form the next Welsh government.

“There are more people coming out to vote now when they have a party they believe in.”

On Friday, Farage predicted May’s Senedd election would be “a two-horse race between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru”.

“The complete collapse of Labor votes for Plaid happened to a party people know well and to a popular local politician,” he wrote on social media.

Labor had held Caerphilly since the opening of the Welsh Parliament (or Senedd), as the National Assembly was then called, in 1999.

The result leaves the party two seats short of a majority and makes it difficult for the party to run the government ahead of a crucial vote on the budget in January.

He has already started talks with opposition leaders to work out how he can deliver on his spending plans for the NHS, education and other services.

Morgan congratulated the Plaid Cymru candidate and said the by-election was held “in the most challenging conditions and amidst challenging headwinds across the country”.

He said he heard Labour’s “frustration on the doorstep” and insisted the party was “listening, we have learned our lessons and we will come back stronger”.

Whatever happens next, Caerphilly has written itself into the pages of Welsh political history as 100 years of Labor rule collapses.

We’re about to find out whether this result is an illuminating anomaly or a truly new chapter.

Read more analysis from Wales political editor Gareth Lewis Here