‘Disappointed’ Starmer in firing line over historic by-election defeat for Labour in Caerphilly
Sir Keir Starmer has a stark warning over the government’s course; pollsters predicted he could struggle to turn things around after a devastating defeat in the Labor heartland.
Plaid Cymru wrested the traditional Labor seat of Caerphilly from Sir Keir’s party overnight on Thursday. It was the first time the Labor Party, which came third behind Reform England, had lost an election in the former mining town in more than a century.
Sir Keir said he was “deeply disappointed” with the result, adding: “Clearly we need to do much more.”
But Ipsos pollster Keiran Pedley said many people saw this week’s byelection as a sign of local elections next May, as well as national elections for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments. Independent Professor Sir John Curtice said the results showed the party was in “serious trouble in Wales”, but said it was “difficult to see how Labor could turn things around”.
Pressure group Mainstream, an ally of Andy Burnham, warned Labor would be “wiped out in Wales next May without a major reset” and advised Sir Keir to “reject the extreme factional culture”. [that is] He is determined to concentrate power at the top of the party.”
But a Labor MP said there was “nothing Starmer can do to change the political course” and urged the prime minister to “consider his position now rather than later, before Labor is dragged into the abyss”.
It comes at a time of growing concern about the direction of Sir Keir’s government; Many see next May’s local and national elections as a key test of Labour’s performance in power and a deadline for the prime minister to begin delivering on the government’s priorities.
In this year’s local elections, Reform UK won hundreds of seats, beating more than half a dozen English councils; It hopes to repeat this result in 2026.
Labor has run the Welsh parliament since the devolved administration was first established in 1999, and Caerphilly is one of its strongholds. But opposition parties hoping to form the next Welsh government are running fierce campaigns in the south Wales constituency, with many seeing this week’s by-election as a sign of parliamentary elections next May.
Lindsay Whittle, a long-serving councilor for the Penyrheol ward and leader of the Plaid Cymru group on Caerphilly Council, won the seat with 47.38 per cent of the vote; this was a lead of almost 27 per cent for Labor.
In second place was Reform UK’s Llyr Powell with 35.9 per cent, while Welsh Labor Party’s Richard Tunnicliffe came third with just 11 per cent.
The result will embolden Plaid’s efforts to enter government in Wales next year and will be a bitter blow for Labor, which has held the seat since the Welsh parliament was first formed.
It will also be seen as a disappointment for Reform UK, which voted ahead and was hoping to win its first seat at the polls, with Nigel Farage vowing to “throw everything at it” into the campaign.
While Reform’s vote share has increased significantly after receiving just 495 votes four years ago, tactical voting is thought to have diminished the party’s success in the constituency on Friday. However, the final result put Reform well ahead of Labor.
It also means that for the first time in history the turnout in a by-election for a seat in the Welsh parliament has exceeded 50 per cent.
Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said the result showed the people of Caerphilly had chosen “hope over division and progress over the tired status quo”.
Mainstream said: “As long as UK Labor governs without a clear vision and disconnected from its moral purpose and democratic socialist foundations, losses like this will become more frequent.”
The group said the only way to resist the drift towards opposition parties such as Plaid and Reform was to present “a popular, principled and practical left-wing policy that could transform the country by raising living standards, redistributing power and wealth, and securing everyone’s share in a national community that guarantees the foundations of a good life for all”.
Warning that “time is short”, the group called on Labor to “reject the extreme factional culture” [that is] He is determined to concentrate power at the top of the party,” adding: “The outcome is clear: Labor will be eliminated in Wales next May without the need for a major reset.”
Prof Curtice said: “Labour’s vote share was just 11 per cent. It fell 35 points. This is the biggest fall Labor has ever experienced in a by-election in Wales. Labor is in serious trouble in Wales.”
He added: “This suggests that Plaid is now well placed to provide Wales with its next first minister. Reform will be disappointed to come second on 36 per cent, but I don’t think we should shy away from the idea that this in any way indicates that Nigel Farage’s bubble has burst.”
And Mr Pedley said Independent: “Yesterday’s collapse in support for the Labor Party is worrying for the years to come Senedd [Welsh parliament] elections. It is difficult to see how they will turn things around in such an anti-political environment once they come to power in Westminster and Wales, where they have been in power for some time.
“One consolation for Labor is that tactical anti-Reform voting is widespread. While this may not be of much use in Wales next year, it may be of some help to Labor in future elections elsewhere in the UK.”
Mr Whittle received 15,961 votes, an increase of almost 19 per cent on the 2021 result in the constituency and represents an almost 27 per cent swing from Labour.
Mr Powell received 12,113 votes, while Labour’s Mr Tunnicliffe received 3,713 votes, down from 13,289 votes in 2021, when turnout was lower.
