BBC correspondents on the wins and potential losses

US President Donald Trump is arriving in Asia for a whirlwind week of diplomacy that includes a highly anticipated meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

At the top of the agenda between the two countries will be the issue of trade, where tensions between the world’s two largest economies have once again increased.

Trump is heading to Kuala Lumpur, the capital of Malaysia, as the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean, begins on Sunday. He will then visit Japan and finally South Korea, where the White House said he will meet with Xi.

So what are the gains Trump and other leaders hope for, and what are the pitfalls?

Our reporters reveal what you need to know about next week.

Written by: Anthony Zurcher, North America correspondent

Signing new trade agreements that provide opportunities for American businesses while keeping tariff revenues flowing to the U.S. Treasury is certain to be the main focus of Trump’s trip to Asia.

While there are many players in the global trade dance, the key to Trump’s success or failure is China. And Trump’s planned meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of APEC — his first since 2019 — could set the tone for U.S.-China relations for the remainder of Trump’s second term in office.

As the US president has acknowledged, draconian tariffs on Chinese imports are unsustainable. Although he doesn’t say it openly, an escalating economic war with America’s largest trading partner would have devastating consequences for the United States, China, and the rest of the world.

This fact is underlined by sharp declines in major US stock indexes whenever China and the US reach a stalemate.

When he returns to America next week, Trump will surely be pleased if he can finalize a deal with South Korea and secure new Japanese investment in U.S. manufacturing.

But his top priority will surely be to persuade Xi to resume purchases of American agricultural exports, loosen recent restrictions on foreign access to China’s rare earth materials, give U.S. companies greater access to the Chinese market and avoid an all-out trade war.

For Trump, as the saying goes, that’s the whole point.

Written by: Laura Bicker, China correspondent

Chinese leader Xi Jinping wants to be a tougher negotiator when he meets Trump in South Korea on October 30.

So it benefits from China’s pressure on rare earth elements, without which you can’t make semiconductors, weapons systems, cars and even smartphones. This is a weakness of the US and China is exploiting it; just as he hurts American farmers and Trump’s rural voting base by not buying soybeans.

Xi has also learned the lessons of Trump 1.0, and it appears Beijing is willing to embrace the pain of tariffs this time around. First of all, the United States, which once accounted for one-fifth of China’s exports, is no longer such an important market.

Still, Xi has a balance to strike between his economic struggle with the United States and his fight against domestic challenges. And Washington knows Xi’s problems: high youth unemployment, a real estate crisis, rising local government debt and a population reluctant to spend.

Analysts believe China could offer a deal if Trump agrees to start exporting advanced artificial intelligence chips or withdraws further military support to Taiwan.

But getting there won’t be easy. One of the biggest differences is that Trump is thought to be willing to roll the dice and gamble, while Xi is playing a much longer game.

So the question might be: Can Trump expect this?

Jonathan Head, South East Asia correspondent

The US president seems interested in only one thing during his visit to Malaysia: starring in a ceremony organized especially for him, where Thailand and Cambodia will sign some kind of peace agreement.

Differences between the two countries over borders are still unresolved, but under pressure to find something, they have made progress in agreeing to demilitarize the border.

Neither can afford to disappoint President Trump. In July, while they were still bombing and shelling each other, the threat to end tariff talks forced them into an immediate ceasefire.

Other Asean member states will hope that Trump’s presence, however brief, will normalize relations with the United States.

They have had a turbulent year, with their export-dependent economies badly shaken by a tariff war. Exports from the region to the US have doubled since Trump’s last visit to the Asean summit in 2017.

Once Trump is gone, other leaders can go about their normal business; the quiet, incremental diplomacy that furthered the difficult progress of integration between them.

Also on the agenda is a conflict that has not received Trump’s attention: the civil war in Myanmar, which has haunted every Asean meeting since it was triggered by a brutal coup in 2021.

By Suranjana Tewari, Asia trade correspondent

Asia’s manufacturing giants, which account for most of world production, will take a break from Trump’s tariffs.

Some have agreed on deals, some are still in talks, but none have signed a deal.

So ink on paper or at least promising talks would be welcomed.

Take China. The meeting between Trump and Xi signals progress, but the two leaders still have a lot to sort out, from taxes and export controls to the source of it all: the rivalry between the world’s two largest economies as they vie for supremacy in artificial intelligence and advanced technology.

The easing of these tensions will also relieve other countries in the region. South East Asia may be the most stuck region; For example, in electronics, it is deeply intertwined with US supply chains but heavily dependent on Chinese demand.

Exports to the United States have doubled in the last decade, but tariffs of 10 percent to 40 percent will strain manufacturers in Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand.

This could also hurt U.S. chipmakers like Micron Technology, which operates facilities in Malaysia. The country exported nearly $10 billion worth of semiconductors to the United States last year; this accounts for roughly one-fifth of total U.S. chip imports.

Rich economies such as Japan and South Korea face a different dilemma.

Although they are close allies of the United States, they are in unpredictable times and will want to keep tariff terms and investments constant. Automakers in both countries, which see the United States as a key market, are already struggling to navigate the chaos.

Written by: Shaimaa Khalil, Japan correspondent

Trump described Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, as a woman of great “strength and wisdom.”

This week, his ability to establish a stable, working relationship with it will be the first test of his leadership and Japan’s place in the changing world order.

In his first speech to parliament, he promised to increase Japan’s defense budget, signaling his intention to put more of the security burden on Washington.

Trump has mentioned this before and is expected to pressure Tokyo to contribute more to the deployment of US troops – Japan hosts the largest number of American forces abroad, with around 53,000 personnel.

Both sides want to finalize a tariff deal negotiated by its predecessor.

Particularly beneficial to Japan’s auto giants Toyota, Honda and Nissan, the regulation reduces US import duties on Japanese cars from 27.5% to 15%, potentially making them more competitive against Chinese rivals.

Takaichi is betting on continuity by hiring Ryosei Akazawa as chief tariff negotiator.

In response, Japan has pledged to invest $550 billion in the United States to strengthen supply chains in pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

Trump also said Japan would increase purchases of U.S. agricultural products, including rice; It’s a move welcomed in Washington but troubling Japanese farmers.

Takaichi’s ties to the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who had a close relationship with Trump, may also work in his favor.

Abe had used rounds of golf at Mar-a-Lago to gain Trump’s trust; This is the kind of personal diplomacy Takaichi might try to emulate.

By Seoul reporter Jake Kwon

The pressing issue for South Korean President Lee Jae Myung is Trump’s tariffs.

But that thunder was briefly stolen by widespread speculation that Trump might visit the border to see North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

In August, Lee devoted much of his time in the Oval Office to praising Trump as a “peacemaker.” Trump responded enthusiastically to the prospect of meeting with Kim, whom he had not seen since 2019. Kim said last month that he still remembers Trump “fondly.”

Analysts believe Kim hopes to legitimize his nuclear weapons program with another summit with the US president. There is no indication that the meeting will take place.

Either way, Lee has a trade deal to negotiate. Talks to reduce U.S. tariffs on South Korean exports from 25% to 15% have stalled despite multiple visits by Seoul officials to Washington. The sticking point here is Trump’s insistence that Seoul invest $350 billion in upfront investments in the United States (roughly one-fifth of South Korea’s economy); Seoul fears that such a large investment could lead to a financial crisis.

But in recent days, Korean officials have expressed hope, citing concrete progress. And we’ll hope an agreement is signed between Trump and Lee by the end of Wednesday’s summit.