A year on as Queensland premier, will David Crisafulli’s small-target strategy prove his undoing? | Queensland politics

When David Crisafulli speaks to Liberal National Party loyalists, his message becomes a clear warning to members and MPs to keep any unsavory, unelectable tendencies out of sight.

“We don’t exist for culture wars,” the Queensland premier, who celebrated his first year in office on Sunday, told the party’s state council just after the 2024 election.

He became even more prominent at the state conference in August, urging members not to be distracted by “ideological issues” or internal squabbles.

“We cannot fall into the hands of those who want to divide us”

Crisafulli’s government, elected on a “small-target” platform focused primarily on the perceived youth crime “crisis,” kept these divisions in check by focusing much of its first year on the same small target.

In December he introduced strict laws to punish children as adults, and then in May expanded them to cover 33 crimes, including non-violent ones.

LNP sources say that in the cabinet room, Crisafulli was more of a moderator than prime minister. His determination to stay out of the ideological fray is so strong that he rarely participates in policy debates in which the party’s “broad church” is divided.

It’s hard to argue with the strategy, especially as the Liberals in other states and the federal party appear to be struggling with existential issues.

The Liberals say the party’s first, second and third priority is a second term in government and they need to appeal to more moderate voters in Brisbane to make that happen.

“This is what gets the Prime Minister out of bed in the morning,” one LNP MP told the Guardian.

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On the one hand, Crisafulli appears to have learned the lesson from the extreme incompetence of the Newman years, a government captive to the party hall of far-right MPs who were elected on a moderate platform but were not expected to win seats in parliament.

Scott Emerson, the transport minister in the Newman government, says the most important lesson from those years is not to move too quickly; He said that it was important to explain why this happened first.

“I think some of the strategies we’ve seen from the Crisafulli government are largely driven by lessons learned [from the Newman government]”says Emerson.

“Maybe [there is] There are criticisms that they didn’t act quickly enough, but… you have to make sure the public is aware that there is a problem. [first]”.

Queenslanders tend to like “conservative” governments: although not in an ideological sense, voters seem to be frightened when reform happens too quickly. The Goss government’s first slogan was “don’t scare the horses.” In the early years, Annastacia Palasczuk was labeled “oversight and don’t.”

But Crisafulli’s government looks like something completely different: an administration that has taken a firm stance on only one issue – youth crime – and is perhaps quickly discovering the other side of the ideological gap.

A year later, haven’t the LNP run out of work to do?

Aside from youth crime laws, the government has focused much of its attention on planning the 2032 Olympic Games, opposing the CFMEU and trying to convince Queenslanders Labor has got things done.

Paul Williams, an associate professor at Griffith University and a commentator on Queensland politics since the 1980s, says there is next to nothing on the government’s legislative agenda.

The parliamentary notice sheet for the next sitting day lists a single government affairs bill: a proposal to reform the Queensland Building and Construction Commission.

“If you don’t offer enough other than the officer’s displeasure and the current state of the crime [agenda] … you don’t actually have anything to put your hat on,” Williams says.

“So the reason people stick with you is impressions rather than the substance of the policy, and the LNP’s impression has largely been one that gets their wheels turning.

“If the government cannot find an agenda other than the Olympics and youth crime, it becomes a government driven by the media cycle.”

“This could easily be a one-term government.”

Recent polls have shown the LNP losing support in Brisbane and the suburbs, failing to break through in these areas despite a comfortable election victory built on success in the Queensland regions.

Logically, there are two paths the government can take from here. The first is to consolidate his position by continuing to appeal to moderate urban voters who have been put off by the far-right, socially conservative elements of the LNP in past elections.

But if polls show the party struggles to make headway in the urban arena, there is a possibility of a turning point to defend won regional seats in 2024, when voters are more comfortable with right-wing rhetoric.

Ideological divisions still remain within the LNP, no matter how fervently Crisafulli tries to suppress them.

“The current prime minister is in danger of losing the foundation that built the Liberal National party,” Matthew Cliff, chief executive of anti-abortion lobby group Cherish Life, wrote in a blog post last month.

Cherish Life has campaigned on behalf of conservative Liberals in recent years; The organisation’s vice president, Alan Baker, is a party official.

“Maybe [Crisafulli] I’m comfortable with that,” Cliff wrote.

“But political history shows this is a dangerous gamble. Every time conservative leaders neglect the concerns of conservatives, others stand on the sidelines to fill the void.

“If he continues to exclude and alienate the electorate, the long-term costs could be high. Not only for his supporters on the right, but also for those in his own party who lean to the right.”

Crisafulli appears to have succeeded so far by giving enough tether to the conservative elements of his government, led by deputy prime minister Jarrod Bleijie, who sources say are the loudest voice in the cabinet room.

This is not a government beyond the culture wars, however Crisafulli wants to characterize it. This was pivotal to the First Nations’ decision to end the truth-telling inquiry; the step back on the closure of coal-fired power plants; pressures on wind farms; abolition of pill testing; and banning critical gender-affirming care treatments, including puberty blockers, on what appears to be rather weak justification.

This staved off a conservative revolt for now.

A year later, Crisafulli’s government is criticized as stable but dull, directionless and stuck in a difficult situation. The Prime Minister has three more years to continue his balancing act.