‘We can’t accept this’: no time for climate COP out

At the entrance to the Amazon, politicians, diplomats, scientists, business leaders and non-governmental organizations gather to talk about climate change.

The rainforest city of Belem is a symbolic choice for Brazil, which aims to draw attention to its flagship fund that rewards countries that keep carbon-absorbing forests intact.

Hosting tens of thousands of delegates in the small city was a logistical headache and led to scrambling to find enough beds.

But the Brazilian government favored the host town, a choice designed to center the Amazon and its First Nations protectors, known as the “lungs of the world.”

Richie Merzian, CEO of the Clean Energy Investor Group and a veteran of COP summits, says Brazil’s resolve is an apt analogy for global climate action.

“There’s all this drama but you know almost every country in the world is sticking to it,” he told AAP.

International efforts to keep global warming no higher than 1.5°C or well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels are off track.

United Nations environmental agency warns 1.5 degrees “very likely” to be exceeded this decadeA situation that UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has described as “fatal neglect”.

“Cutting emissions to reduce the magnitude and duration of the overshoot has never been more urgent,” he told leaders gathered in Belem ahead of the official COP30 summit of the Conference of the Parties, which opens on Monday.

This year was determined as second or third warmest year in historyThe World Meteorological Organization warned in its annual climate update ahead of the conference.

The harsh realities were voiced in a politically challenging environment for climate cooperation, highlighted by the United States’ exit from the Paris Agreement, the global agreement aimed at limiting temperature rise to well below 2°C.

China and India, the three countries that pollute the world the most along with the United States, were conspicuously absent from the two-day meeting of heads of state.

Independent economist and Climate Council Member Nicki Hutley says the US government’s retreat from climate action is not ideal.

“But this is not the end of the climate negotiations,” he told AAP ahead of his trip to Belem.

He says he hopes America’s subnational governments will play a larger role and European countries will move forward at the nation-state level.

He says China will also be worth watching because, despite its emissions profile, it has shackled its economic and strategic future to clean industries such as electric vehicles.

The two-week summit is expected to be dominated by the gap between national climate commitments and desired temperature targets; Additionally, discussions on adaptation, deforestation and climate finance to help poorer countries transition are also expected.

It has also been called “implementation of the COP”.

John Grimes, Chief Executive of the Smart Energy Council, describes this as “taking back control” over climate outcomes, particularly at sub-national, state and city levels.

“If you were to design a process to deliver effective and rapid results, you would not design a UN-based process,” he told AAP.

Mr Grimes, who attended the summit, wants to use the opportunity to frame Australia’s leadership in distributed energy resources, namely rooftop solar and batteries installed by households and small businesses.

Managing millions of distributed energy resources and integrating them into electrical grids has been a technical challenge that has spawned significant domestic innovations.

“We have to race to really understand this, capture this intellectual property and then have solutions that we can take to the world,” he told AAP.

UN climate summits now function as giant trade fairs for low-carbon industries and also host state-level negotiations.

The fate of Australia’s joint bid to host the next climate summit with Pacific island states can also be expected to be decided in the Brazilian talks.

Türkiye remains in the race and no venue has been determined for the massive event with only 12 months to go.

Mr Merzian said Australia could play a role in formal negotiations again, with Federal Climate Minister Chris Bowen serving as co-chair of finance discussions in Azerbaijan in 2024.

“Australia has a great story to tell,” Mr Merzian says.

He outlined “practical but ambitious” emissions reduction targets and industry plans, as well as breakthroughs for managing a just transition that won’t leave coal mining communities behind.

Belem will also be the first COP since the International Court of Justice’s groundbreaking advisory opinion on climate change.

Vanuatu Climate Change Minister Ralph Regenvanu, who is spearheading the World Court campaign, will seek to socialize the summit’s advisory opinion, including the court’s warning that failure to restrict production and consumption of fossil fuels could constitute an “international wrongful act”.

“Unfortunately, our expectations for the COP are low,” he said at a briefing last week, noting states’ reluctance to seek the court’s opinion.

Australia is moving away from fossil fuel use domestically but remains a major exporter of coal and gas to other countries.

Ms Hutley says those seeking guidance on the international climate target should pay attention to the final text and whether 1.5 degrees will remain.

At a time when devastating floods, fires and tropical coral reefs are reaching tipping point, he emphasizes that the increased risk of 1.5 degrees of warming is no reason to give up.

“We can’t accept this. We can’t accept this,” he says.

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