Reporter’s Notebook: Rand Paul’s procedural hold could keep government shut for another week

You. Rand Paul, R-Ky., was the only Republican to break away from his party and vote no in a test vote to break the filibuster on the deal to reopen the government.

Paul voted no because he wanted to ensure changes to the hemp bill.

The measure prevents the “unregulated sale” of “intoxicating cannabis-based” products at gas stations and small retailers. Protects the sale of non-intoxicating CBD in other hemp-related products.

So if the Senate got 60 votes to break the filibuster last night and only needs 51 votes to pass the bill, why is the Senate being blocked by Paul?

GOVERNMENT DEEPS DEEP INTO LOCKDOWN CRISIS WITHOUT ANY DEAL

It’s about speed.

Fasten your seatbelts for the next episode. It gets complicated.

Last night’s vote was to break the filibuster to move on to the original spending measure passed by the House starting in September. 60 years were needed for this.

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Weed shop shelf with THC gummies, brownies and other candies. (iStock)

Therefore, the Senate broke its filibuster to begin work on the bill.

As a rule, the Senate can end 30 hours of debate after breaking the filibuster, unless Paul gives in. This will take us to a small procedural vote to consider the bill at dawn on Tuesday morning.

That is, unless there’s a deal with Paul or other Democratic senators to speed things up.

But wait. There is more.

It is Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s (R.S.D.) intention — and this was done last night with a wink and a nod to reach an agreement — that he introduce what’s called a “replacement” amendment. A replacement would remove the House’s old bill text and replace it with the new spending package.

But since this is a substitute amendment, Thune needs to file for cloture to break the filibuster on this issue. As a rule, Thune couldn’t do that until Tuesday. Cloture petitions require a day to pass before ripening. That means the Senate can’t vote to break the filibuster on a replacement bill (i.e., the new bill) until Thursday. I repeat, 60 years are needed for this. And if there’s no deal, the Senate could lose another hour before voting yes or no on the replacement name. It would probably be on Friday.

THE RISK OF GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN INCREASES AS DEMS BLOCKS THE TRUMP-SUPPORTED EXTENSION FOR THE SECOND TIME

Senate Majority Leader John Thune speaks at a news conference with Senate Republican leaders following a policy luncheon on Capitol Hill in Washington, Oct. 28, 2025. (Nathan Posner/Anatolia via Getty Images)

But we’re not done yet.

If the Senate accepts the new text on Friday, Thune must reintroduce the core bill on Friday, wait a day (Saturday), and then vote to break the filibuster on Sunday (also by 60 votes).

This scenario means the Senate will finally pass the renewed spending bill next Monday. That means the House won’t take up the bill until Tuesday or Wednesday next week.

So it actually extends the government shutdown.

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However, this probably won’t happen. This is doing things by the book.

But that’s also why it’s in Thune’s best interest to reach an agreement with Paul to speed things up. Otherwise Paul or the Democrats who oppose the bill could actually slow things down and extend the shutdown.