Europe scrambles for US gas after dismissing Trump’s earlier warnings

When Donald Trump warned European leaders years ago that their dependence on Russian gas would make them “hostages to Moscow,” those words were met with skepticism and even laughter.

Three years into his second term, those same leaders are now trying to secure long-term contracts for U.S. liquefied natural gas, as Russia’s once dominant dominance of the European energy market unravels just as Trump predicted.

Russia’s decision to halt gas deliveries in 2022 (an attempt to break Western unity and pressure Europe to abandon Ukraine) had the opposite effect. Its share in European Union gas imports fell from 45 percent in 2021 to less than 10 percent today. US gas currently accounts for approximately 57% of Europe’s total imports; Before the war, the rate was roughly one in three.

The outage precipitated a historic realignment in global energy as U.S. LNG producers began to fill the gap. This shift has not only blunted one of Vladimir Putin’s most powerful geopolitical weapons, but also fueled an American export boom that ties Europe to Washington more tightly than at any time since the Cold War.

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The transformation is most evident in Central and Eastern Europe, where countries once dependent on Russian pipelines are turning westward. New corridors connecting LNG terminals in Poland, Greece and Croatia channel US and Qatar gas deep into the continent. Countries like Ukraine, Romania and Slovakia, long vulnerable to supply disruptions, are making contracts that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.

“Central and Eastern Europe have been the most vulnerable because these are countries that have historically been almost 100% dependent on Russian gas,” said Aura Sabadus, senior energy analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis. “We are now seeing companies in these markets securing U.S. LNG through new routes, particularly through the southern corridors through Poland and Greece.”

In Athens last week, executives from major U.S. manufacturers met with regional buyers from Greece, Poland and Ukraine to finalize new supply agreements; This was the clearest sign yet that Europe’s energy axis was shifting. American gas now flows through the same infrastructure that once carried Russian fuel, and the geopolitical balance has tipped with it.

For the Kremlin, this cost is increasing. Energy exports once financed a third of Russia’s budget, but the loss of its most lucrative market has forced Moscow to sell oil and gas to China and India at steep discounts. Analysts say the country’s energy sector, once the backbone of its geopolitical power, has become a liability, exposing the country’s dependence on fewer, less profitable buyers.

The US has significantly increased LNG exports to Europe. (Anton Zubchevskyi/stock/Getty)

Greece has emerged as an important gateway for US gas. On November 7, Athens signed the first long-term agreement with American exporter Venture Global, which envisages imports of at least 700 million cubic meters per year from 2030. The 20-year deal, led by DEPA Commercial and Aktor Group, could expand to 2 billion cubic meters per year and allow Greece to re-export gas northwards through the Balkans towards Ukraine.

Poland is also positioning itself as a regional hub. Warsaw is negotiating to bring additional US LNG volumes, estimated at up to 5 billion cubic meters per year, for resale to Ukraine and Slovakia. Polish energy group ORLEN recently signed a contract with Ukraine’s Naftogaz to supply 140 million cubic meters of American gas through terminals in Świnoujście and Lithuania’s Klaipėda.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is increasingly relying on these routes to compensate for Russian losses and prepare for winter.

Europe’s turnaround is likely to accelerate as the EU discusses a complete ban on Russian pipeline gas and LNG by 2028, Sabadus said. “If this law is passed and implemented — and long-term contracts with U.S. suppliers are secured — this will not just be a temporary change,” he said. “There will be a structural realignment.”

During Trump’s initial warnings, many European leaders ignored them. German officials have defended the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and insisted trade would keep Russia tied to the West. Now those same governments are racing to secure America’s supplies as U.S. LNG terminals on the Gulf Coast operate at record capacity.

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As the United States strengthens its role as Europe’s primary gas supplier, Russia’s dominance in the continent’s energy market continues to weaken. “Russia has been offering deep discounts to stall buyers, but as global production increases, its flexibility to compete will be limited,” Sabadus said. “US LNG will become very competitive in Europe.”

When Donald Trump warned European leaders years ago that their dependence on Russian gas would make them “hostages to Moscow,” those words were met with skepticism and even laughter. (Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The Trump administration moved quickly to take advantage of this change. Earlier this year he lifted a pause on LNG export approvals, approved new production projects in Louisiana and Texas, and pushed for a US-EU energy framework under which European buyers pledge to buy hundreds of billions of dollars in American energy over the coming decades. Officials point to a series of recent long-term contracts, including Venture Global’s deals with Italy and Germany over the summer, Greece’s deal announced last week, and a newly signed contract between Spain’s Naturgy and Venture Global, as evidence that the “energy dominance” agenda is reshaping global trade flows.

Rob Jennings, vice president of natural gas markets at the American Petroleum Institute, said the policy change unleashed a wave of investment and confirmed strong demand for U.S. LNG.

“The five plants made final investment decisions in the first nine months of this year, totaling approximately 50 million metric tons of new capacity per year, representing an investment of more than $50 billion,” he told Fox News. Digital “This is a really strong signal coming from the market.”

Export growth benefits both sides of the Atlantic, Jennings said.

“Since 2016, the cumulative GDP impact of the U.S. LNG sector is approximately $400 billion and could add another $1.3 trillion over the next 15 years,” he said. “At the same time, more than two-thirds of U.S. LNG exports now go to Europe every day, displacing the gas they once received from Russia.”

Still, industry officials warn that regulatory differences could complicate future trading. Jennings pointed to two new European policies — EU methane regulation and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive — that U.S. manufacturers say could impose foreign standards on American companies.

“These rules are an indication that Europe is trying to impose its own standards globally,” he said. “We hope this can be addressed as part of the trade deal because it risks undermining Europe’s commitment to buy more US energy.”

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The reorganization of Europe is not yet complete. Regulatory incompatibilities, high transmission tariffs and local policies still complicate integration in Central and Eastern Europe. But for now, the combination of ample supply in the U.S. and new demand from the coal-to-gas switch has created what Sabadus calls “a good fit.”

“We’re entering a buyer’s market now,” he said. “There is ample LNG supply in the US, and new pockets of demand are emerging in Eastern Europe as countries switch from coal to gas.”