Here’s when government data may come back

It will likely be some time before economic data releases, delayed during the government shutdown, begin to be released again once Congress is back in action.

The reopening could happen later this week, after final votes are cast and President Donald Trump signs into law a bill that would halt spending.

But from now on, various agencies, especially the Labor and Commerce departments, will need to get back on their feet in collecting and publishing data. This means you’ll likely have to capture important reports like non-farm payrolls, consumer price index, retail sales, spending and income, and various other metrics.

“The federal government shutdown delayed the release of nearly all federal economic data for September and October,” Goldman Sachs economists Elsie Peng and Ronnie Walker wrote in a client note. he said. “Although the lockdown appears to be coming to an end, it will take time for statistical agencies to work through the backlog of releases.”

Assuming the government reopens before the weekend, Goldman estimates the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics will release an updated release schedule early next week.

The BLS is responsible for the payroll report as well as the CPI and producer price index, both of which are scheduled to be released this week. The bureau’s other reports include import and export prices, the employment cost index, and the Job Opportunities and Labor Turnover Survey.

Goldman economists expect the October jobs report to be released soon after the reopening, possibly next Tuesday or Wednesday. “However, apart from this, we expect the publication of other important data to be postponed,” they said.

That means November payrolls and inflation reports could be delayed “by at least a week,” Goldman said.

More relevant reports for the business sector include personal expenditures and income, which includes the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s key measure of inflation. Apart from this, there are data on retail sales, durable goods and quarterly gross domestic product.

Once the data freeze ends, the reports are likely to show the same thing for the economy: a slowing labor market, inflation still running above the Fed’s comfort level, and overall positive but not gangsta growth.

Fed officials pointed out the trouble caused by not providing regular data reports. But Chairman Jerome Powell said recently that alternative data showed the central bank wasn’t missing much in terms of the macro picture.

“While some key federal government data has been delayed due to the shutdown, the remaining public and private sector data we have suggests that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since our meeting in September,” Powell said at an Oct. 29 press conference. he said. “Conditions in the labor market appear to be cooling and inflation remains somewhat high.”

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected the October nonfarm payrolls report to show a loss of 60,000 jobs. While Goldman estimates the decline at 50,000, the overall trend of data for the month points to a slowdown.

Powell said Fed forecasts set the headline inflation rate for September at 2.8%, which is still well above the central bank’s 2% target but is expected to slow gradually through 2026. The official PCE report is scheduled to be published on November 26, and it is unknown whether this will be the case.

As for the broader economy, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Follow-up of incoming data shows that third quarter growth was 4%. Goldman forecasts 1.3% growth in the fourth quarter, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points from the previous forecast, and will pace the full year with a 2% annualized gain.