China’s CO2 Emissions Haven’t Risen For 18 Months, Analysis Finds
BEIJING, Nov 11 (Reuters) – China’s carbon dioxide emissions were flat on an annual basis in the third quarter, continuing an 18-month streak of flat or declining emissions, according to analysis by climate publication Carbon Brief.
Analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta of the Helsinki-based Energy and Clean Air Research Center shows that the trend, which started in March 2024, means CO2 emissions could fall this year if there is no increase at the end of the year.
According to a previous Carbon Brief analysis, CO2 production increased by 0.8% in 2024 following a post-pandemic recovery at the beginning of the year.
In September, the government pledged to cap carbon emissions by 2030 and cut them by 7% to 10% from an as-yet-unknown peak by 2035.
Although this pledge was China’s first to reduce emissions, the scale of the cuts fell short of broader expectations. The EU climate commissioner described this as “disappointing”.
The United States’ withdrawal from international climate agreements under President Donald Trump has created an opportunity for China to play a larger role on the issue, including at the UN COP30 climate summit that begins in Brazil on Monday.
Xinhua News Agency via Getty Images
Emissions holding steady in the third quarter of 2025 occurred as rising chemicals sector emissions offset declines or pauses elsewhere.
The analysis found that although electricity demand increased by 6.1%, transport emissions fell 5% in the third quarter and energy sector emissions remained stable.
Electricity generation from wind, solar, nuclear and hydroelectric energy met approximately 90% of this demand increase. Gas-fired generation is also reducing the share of coal.
But growth in the chemical industry has kept overall emissions from falling. Plastic production increased by 12% annually in the January-September period, driven by increasing domestic demand for plastic in food delivery and e-commerce.
China has also increased domestic production of polyethylene, the most widely used type of plastic, in response to the trade war with the United States, according to the analysis.
The government has also encouraged refineries to switch to chemical production to offset the decline in transport fuel demand at a time when there is a widespread shift to electric vehicles. (Reporting by Colleen Howe; Editing by Christopher Cushing)
