‘They all think Keir is done’: how push to protect Starmer’s job backfired spectacularly | Labour

If there’s one thing Labor can agree on this week, it’s that efforts by Keir Starmer’s allies to strengthen his position have backfired spectacularly.

Figures in the Prime Minister’s circle have only succeeded in exposing the weakness of his position by informing journalists that he will face all kinds of difficulties and accusing Wes Streeting of leading a sophisticated plot to bring him down.

The sharks were already circling; There is no shortage of senior Labor politicians who believe they could do a better job of running the country. And Tuesday night’s failed briefing operation was evidence for many MPs that Starmer was leading an ineffective No 10 operation heading for crushing defeat in Scottish, Welsh and English local councils next May.

That impression was reinforced on Friday when Downing Street ripped up carefully monitored plans to raise income tax in the budget; The move was seen by others in the government as the latest “panicked” attempt to protect Starmer’s position.

“MPs from many factions and camps, many once loyalists, are now talking to each other, they all think Keir is done and are willing to take risks together to get a more capable alternative,” one minister said. “Wherever they end up, MPs’ determination to get there in a coordinated manner has become stronger.”

But even those in the parliamentary Labor Party (PLP) who agree that Starmer’s removal is necessary are divided on who should replace him. Backbenchers say candidates’ bids go beyond budget. “There have been a lot of people pushing and shoving in the last six to eight weeks,” one of them said.

Lawmakers believe this sense of urgency stems from fears that the field could soon become more competitive. “My understanding is that Wes, and potentially other candidates, are fearful of Andy Burnham doing a job swap. [Oldham MP] A second Labor MP told Jim McMahon he would return to the Commons in May: “They think the clock is ticking. They’ve all come to the conclusion that Keir is a bit of a mess and if they don’t act quickly someone else will be in that situation.”

A quick contest would benefit the party. The two most cited candidates are Streeting and home affairs minister Shabana Mahmood, who regularly hosts dinners for MPs dealing with home affairs matters. Streeting has long been regarded by colleagues as No 10’s golden boy and is favored by key players in Starmer’s operation, including chief of staff Morgan McSweeney.

“Wes was given preferential treatment,” said a former adviser to a rival cabinet minister. “He was given the freedom to speak beyond his briefing on matters that were not strictly party policy.” His allies have long insisted this was due to his high-profile role in healthcare and his communication skills.

Some senior Labor figures believe McSweeney “abandoned Wes” last year and that Mahmood would be his preferred successor if the prime minister stands down.

The home secretary’s allies vehemently deny that he has formed any alliance with McSweeney or indeed has his tacit support. “This is both bullshit and the kiss of death,” one said. They say they were very close to McSweeney when he was running the party’s campaign operation, but that is no longer the case. Mahmood’s supporters are understood to be running a low-profile operation of their own to boost his chances.

Streeting, meanwhile, moved noticeably to the left in many areas, including speaking in favor of recognizing Palestine in the cabinet. He endeared himself to the grassroots by calling for Angela Rayner to return to government from the conference stage and saying Lucy Powell had been “vindicated” in calling for culture change in Number 10.

“She’s gone from being a truly right-wing candidate to looking a little more like a furry one, maybe not that far from the soft left compared to the woman who hates immigrants,” the insider said.

The PLP’s soft left was left leaderless after Rayner’s shock resignation over tax affairs in September. However, most MPs believe he will run if an election is held after May, which will give him room to rehabilitate himself politically. One person recently contacted by someone seeking support said he was “desperate to get back to the castle.”

Those close to Rayner deny that he is running a campaign. “The problem is that people are identifying themselves as Angela’s allies and speaking to MPs on her behalf when Angela doesn’t even know it,” one ally said. They claimed Rayner’s family was badly hurt by being dragged into the stamp duty row that led to his departure.

“The idea is for the birds right now that they want to be in the heart of the storm again,” a second source said. “But if things start up again after the May elections, then who knows.”

There have been long-standing rumors that Rayner and Streeting could strike a deal on the basis that they could appeal to both members and the wider public. Some on the soft left believe Rayner should appoint a serious, fiscally responsible chancellor to offer reassurance on the economy.

YouGov polling shows net positive ratings for everyone in the cabinet suffer from the government’s unpopularity. “When we last asked about Wes Streeting in July, his net score was -19,” said Patrick English, YouGov’s director of political analysis. “In September, Lucy Powell received -13, Bridget Phillipson -15, Shabana Mahmood -20, Yvette Cooper -24 and Angela Rayner -40.” Starmer’s final net score was -51.

But English added that there was a high degree of uncertainty for everyone except Starmer. Half of voters said they did not know whether Streeting was positive or negative, compared to 71% for Phillipson, 62% for Mahmood, 43% for Cooper and 41% for Burnham.

Among Labor Party members, who have considerable power to choose the leader in any given contest, YouGov’s vote in September He suggested Streeting would beat Mahmood by 45% to 24%. However, it was claimed that he would lose rayner By 31% to 55%.

Burnham was the only Labor politician who comfortably defeated everyone in a head-to-head battle among party members and had a net positive rating of +2 with the public. The mayor of Greater Manchester is “determined to make a comeback”, an ally has confirmed.

He was going to enter a crowded field; Streeting, Mahmood and Rayner are not the only ones said to have plans for leadership. At least half a dozen other ministers are said to be in maneuvers as they want to play a role in the party’s future. These include Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and Defense Secretary John Healey.

Neither education minister Phillipson, who narrowly lost the deputy leadership contest this month, nor the prime minister’s principal secretary, Darren Jones, denied having leadership ambitions in recent Guardian interviews.

Former transport secretary Louise Haigh and newly elected deputy leader Lucy Powell have also been mentioned by MPs on the soft left. There are even two ministers from the final lineup (Miatta Fahnbulleh and Al Carns) who their colleagues believe could be candidates.

A Labor MP who remains loyal to Starmer said: “Things have progressed so far that it is not easy to see how Number 10 could intervene in this situation.” “They need some good news, but they won’t get it because the budget is coming.”