US and China reshape military airpower for Pacific theater showdown

From new stealth bombers to AI-powered drones, the US and China are retooling air power for a showdown in the Pacific; each believes their technology can keep the other out of the skies.

While the USA stands out with its new generation F-47 fighter jet, China is trying to catch up with jets designed to match the F-35 and F-22.

After a brief program pause in 2024, the Air Force in March awarded Boeing a contract for the F-47, a manned sixth-generation fighter jet that will power America’s next air superiority fleet. The first flight is expected in 2028.

At the same time, the B-21 Raider, the B-2’s stealth successor, continues testing at Edwards Air Force Base. The Air Force plans to purchase at least 100 Raiders, each built to survive in heavily defended Chinese airspace.

The Pentagon is also investing in Cooperative Combat Aircraft, or CCAs (drones), unmanned aerial vehicles designed to fly alongside fighters as “loyal wingmen.” Prototypes from Anduril and General Atomics are already live. Officials say CCAs will allow a pilot to control multiple UAVs simultaneously.

China is outpacing the rest of the world in the commercial drone market, but that doesn’t give it a military advantage.

“I’m not sure that’s really true. The United States still has a pretty significant advantage in terms of high-end military drones, which are really important for this fight.” Eric Heginbotham, a research scientist at MIT’s Center for International Studies, said:

He pointed to the Air Force’s stealth reconnaissance platforms (RQ-170 and RQ-180) and upcoming “loyal wingman” drones designed to fly with fighter jets as evidence that the United States is still a leader in advanced integration and stealth technology.

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China’s leap forward

As the United States reshaped its power, China’s air power modernization accelerated. Beijing has focused on three priorities—stealth, engines, and carriers—that have long held its military back.

China’s flagship stealth fighter, the Chengdu J-20, is being fitted with the new WS-15 engine, a home-built powerplant intended to rival US engines.

“It took them a while to get out of the blocks on the fifth generation, especially to get performance anywhere near where the US fifth generation was,” Heginbotham said. “The J-20 really doesn’t have a lot of the performance features that even the F-22 has, and we’ve been using the F-22 for a long time.”

Meanwhile, China’s third aircraft carrier, Fujian, entered service this fall; The first aircraft carrier to have electromagnetic catapults similar to the US Ford-class aircraft carriers. The move signals Beijing’s desire to launch stealth jets from the sea and project its power far beyond its shores.

The J-20, the carrier-based J-35, and the Fujian together provide China with a layered airpower network; stealth jets supported by increased missile coverage on land and at sea.

Chinese military writings describe airfields as critical security vulnerabilities. PLA campaign manuals call for attacking runways in the early stages of a conflict to cripple enemy air operations before they begin. Analysts believe that several days of intense missile fire could cripple US bases in Japan, Okinawa and Guam.

“Forward-deployed U.S. bases, particularly on Okinawa, but also on the Japanese mainland and on Guam, are exposed to Chinese missile attack,” said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel and senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “In our war games, the Chinese would periodically swarm these air bases with missiles and destroy dozens, and in some cases even hundreds, of U.S. aircraft.”

The missile-heavy strategy stems directly from China’s early air power weakness, Heginbotham said.

The B-21 Raider is the Air Force’s next-generation nuclear-capable bomber. (US Air Force photo)

“They didn’t think they could achieve air superiority in a direct air-to-air battle,” he said. “So you need another way to get the missiles out, which is to build lots of ground launchers.”

Different strategies, same goal

The two armies follow different paths towards the same goal: air dominance over the Pacific.

The US approach relies on a smaller number of highly advanced aircraft connected by sensors and artificial intelligence. Objective: Strike first from long range and survive in hostile weather.

China’s model is based on volume; It produces mass fighter jets, missiles and carrier sorties that will overwhelm US defense and logistics.

“US fighter jets (F-35s, F-15s, F-22s) are relatively short-legged, so if they are going to be part of the fight, they need to get close to Taiwan,” Cancian said. “They can’t fight from Guam, and they certainly can’t fight from further away. So if they’re going to fight, they have to be inside China’s defense bubble.”

Both sides face the same challenge: surviving inside the bubble. As China’s expanding missile range draws U.S. aircraft away from the fight, American bombers and drones are designed to move back in.

struggle for survival

Heginbotham said the next decade of air competition would be determined by survival, not dogfighting.

“We talk about planes as if it’s going to be like World War II; they’re taking off, fighting each other. Actually, that’s not our problem,” he said. “Our problem is the air bases themselves and the ability to destroy aircraft at the air base.”

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He warned that while China was preparing for this reality, the United States was not.

“They do track attacks in practices, they model these things all the time,” Heginbotham said. “Unlike the US, China is strengthening its air bases. The US is criminally negligent in refusing to strengthen its air bases.”

Cancian’s wargaming findings reflect this fragility. He said US surface ships and aircraft would likely have to come under missile fire in the early days of the conflict.

China’s flagship stealth fighter, the Chengdu J-20, is being fitted with the new WS-15 engine, a home-built powerplant intended to rival US engines. (China Daily via Reuters)

“In the early stages of a conflict, China would have a distinct advantage,” Cancian said. he said. “Now, over time, the United States will be able to strengthen its forces and this will change.”

Look ahead

The Pentagon’s fiscal 2026-27 budget will determine how quickly the United States can build the F-47s, B-21s and CCA systems that will shape American air power in the 2030s.

China’s rapid modernization is closing a once-major gap, but the United States still has advantages in stealth integration, combat experience, and autonomous systems.

“The ability to protect our aircraft on the ground, by any means necessary, will be central to our ability to fight in the Asian theater,” Heginbotham said.

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“It will be the key to survival… The ability to maintain and distribute your firepower will be at the heart of whether we can truly stay in this game.”

For decades, US air dominance was guaranteed. In the Pacific, this advantage is no longer guaranteed.