Trump’s peace deal for Ukraine is easy to condemn. It is harder to reject

The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel; This is roughly half of today’s number. There is no equivalent restriction in Russia. This is another win for Putin, weakening his cause in the long run.

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These conditions do not mean a complete victory for Putin. Remember that the goal of Russian tanks in February 2022, when they came so close to Kiev, was to turn Ukraine into a vassal state. He demanded a quick surrender and instead met resistance.

In fact, one of the conditions seems to require Russia to pay a small price for its actions. It is stated that $100 billion of frozen Russian assets will be invested in the reconstruction efforts of Ukraine.

This element is also typical of Trump and his deal-making methods. He wants the United States to get 50 percent of the profits from the $100 billion investment. It is also seeking US profits from the extraction of Ukrainian minerals, but there are no assurances of American investment.

Trump offers Ukraine security guarantees, but it comes at a price. The draft document, widely circulated in the media, states that “the United States will receive compensation in exchange for guarantees.” There will be no NATO troops on Ukrainian territory, and NATO aircraft should be based in Poland, not Ukraine.

Another issue is Putin’s long-standing demand: Ukraine cannot join NATO. However, joining the European Union will be free.

Trump included Putin in every major request of Russia. The US president often complains about the Russian leader, saying that he will talk about peace during the day while sending missiles to Ukraine every night, but he has no stomach for a long conflict.

The terms likely include an end to economic sanctions on Russia, including bans on Russian oil companies that Trump announced last month. Trump will do whatever it takes to end the war. He has little concern for Ukraine’s sovereignty or security for years or decades to come.

European leaders are resisting the plan for the logical reason that making such concessions to Putin would only encourage him to use war and the threat of war in the years to come.

There is no assurance of value from Putin after his long list of conflicts in Eastern Europe (from Georgia and Moldova to Ukraine) and his increasing use of hybrid warfare (arson, cyber, criminal plots and assassinations) against liberal democracies.

But even Europe, however fragile, must weigh the terrible cost of continued war against the benefits of a peace.

Zelensky also needs to consider the 28 articles as a way to reach a solution through negotiations. His response Friday was to show he was thinking about the plan. This is not the easiest option for a leader trying to lead his country into war without rest.

“Ukrainians, more than anyone else in the world, want this war to end, the killings to stop and an honorable peace to be established,” he said.

Zelensky has been speaking to NATO and European leaders before meeting Trump, openly exploring ways to make the draft terms more acceptable. He did not reject the plan and said: “We are ready to work quickly and constructively to make it successful.”

There is no doubt that Putin will win if the 28 points are implemented without changes. The draft plan is Trump’s capitulation to Putin and will likely be condemned for rewarding war.

This doesn’t seem fair. And actually he like that unfair. But the draft peace plan cannot be ignored while it has a chance to turn it into a workable agreement to end the war. This is true even if Putin emerges from the negotiation with something he wants and smiles.

The truth is that very few peace agreements can lead one side to victory while leaving the other side devastated. History shows that most deals work when the terms offer something to both parties.

The humiliation of Germany in 1919 did not provide the lasting peace the world wanted. The stalemate that ended the Korean War was fragile, but recovery and prosperity for South Korea followed.

Even the unprecedented destruction of Germany and Japan in 1945 was followed by reconstruction for the defeated nations rather than further humiliation.

Without a definitive military outcome, every peace agreement is a compromise. And compromise at the end of war requires incredibly painful compromises because war hardens a nation against its enemy. This makes it easy to silence those who advocate a rational but unacceptable peace.

Could Russia lose this war? Probably. As long as trade sanctions leave Moscow broke and slow down industrial production, Russia will face economic defeat. Could Russia face a crushing military defeat? Probably not, as long as Putin has nuclear weapons.

The war in Ukraine could continue for years as liberal democracies await a popular uprising against Putin reminiscent of the end of the Cold War.

Even if there is a ceasefire, Europe will have an interest in maintaining economic pressure on Russia to weaken Putin. Shaking hands with Ukraine will not save NATO members from having to strengthen their defenses.

It is easy to condemn this draft peace agreement because it is so generous to Putin and so brazenly favors its author. Trump appears to have only a passing interest in Ukraine’s long-term security as he seeks to reap American profits from its reconstruction and undoubtedly from his Nobel Peace Prize campaigns.

However, it is not possible to reject this plan as a draft. If there is a path to peace, no matter how dark that path may be, it will have to be discovered.

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