Trump talks to Xi and Takaichi, but spat over Taiwan unlikely to be resolved soon

Back-to-back talks between US President Donald Trump and the leaders of Japan and China have so far done little to defuse the diplomatic row between Beijing and Tokyo; Experts warn that de-escalation of the crisis is not on the horizon.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi spoke to Trump on Tuesday, hours after having a separate meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

In his statement to the press after his meeting with Trump, Takaichi said that he discussed China relations during the meeting. The flurry of calls follows a dispute triggered by Takaichi’s recent comments about how Japan might respond to China’s attack on Taiwan.

Xi pressed Trump on Taiwan during their meeting on Monday, urging Washington to help preserve the post-World War II international order. a formal reading by the Chinese foreign ministry.

But Trump didn’t mention Taiwan A Truth Social post after the call He said he and Xi only discussed the war in Ukraine and fentanyl and soybeans, among other issues. The US President also said he will visit Beijing in April and Xi will make a state visit to the US in late 2026.

The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday He said Xi made the unusual move of requesting a meeting with Trump.

Andy Rothman, founder of Chinese consultancy firm Sinology, pointed out that China’s statement emphasized Taiwan and suggested that Xi wanted Trump to use his influence on Takaichi to persuade him to soften his rhetoric on cross-Strait issues.

Beijing demanded that Takaichi retract his statement on Taiwan, but the Japanese prime minister did not retract his statement, although he said he would refrain from discussing specific scenarios in the future.

“Takaichi cannot retract his statement, and Beijing knows it. Takaichi’s sin was that he spoke clearly, which led Beijing to punish him… It is hard to see relations improving much as long as Takaichi remains prime minister,” analysts David Boling and Jeremy Chan of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said. he said.

Alice Han, China Director of consulting firm Greenvale, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” program that Xi “has prioritized Taiwan as part of his legacy.”

On the other hand, Han said the Trump administration was “much more reluctant” than its predecessors to sacrifice blood and treasure on the Taiwan issue, preferring instead to focus on the trade relationship between Washington and Beijing.

Analysts said Beijing’s outreach to Washington represents an unusual diplomatic overture for Washington, as Washington has been seeking U.S. intervention to rein in tensions with Japan and sees little benefit in further escalating tensions.

But Trump and the White House remained publicly silent.

“Trump’s silence on the Sino-Japanese dispute must be frustrating for both Taipei and Tokyo,” said Dennis Wilder, a senior researcher at Georgetown University.

Beijing has attempted to use its economic influence against Tokyo, including restricting imports of Japanese seafood, advising its citizens to avoid travel to Japan and urging residents of the country to be more careful.

“If Beijing were to escalate tensions and start applying military pressure, you would see a much stronger response from Washington,” said Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

But even as Beijing’s economic pressure on Tokyo increases, analysts say both sides have strong reasons to prevent the dispute from escalating into armed conflict.

“Both sides want to avoid a military conflict, keeping the likelihood of an undesirable conflict between China and Japan extremely low,” Eurasia Group analysts said. he said.

But they added that bilateral relations may not improve in the near term, citing past examples of Chinese economic pressure. South Korea and Australia took years to unravel.