How successful has OPEC+’s oil output policy been in 2025?
After years of cutting production to support prices, key members of the OPEC+ group, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, surprised markets earlier this year by increasing output to levels few expected.
AFP examines OPEC+’s production policy in 2025 and what factors influence the cartel’s decisions:
How has OPEC+’s production policy progressed this year?
Since April, the eight OPEC+ key members (V8) of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman have increased production by a total of approximately 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd).
Faced with increasing competition from producers primarily in the USA, but also in Canada, Brazil and Guyana, the group focused on increasing production in order to gain a larger share of the oil market.
While OPEC+’s strategy has contributed to a supply glut that has weighed on crude oil prices and effectively eroded some of the group’s profits, experts say a range of other factors offset them. In recent months, the 12-day Iran-Israel war, US sanctions on Russia’s oil sector and China’s accumulation of strategic oil reserves have increased the demand for oil and caused a sharp decline in prices. According to HSBC analyst Kim Fustier, “none of these (factors) could have been predicted on January 1”, but thanks to them, OPEC+’s production strategy “generally worked”.
“You could argue that OPEC+ got a little lucky,” he told AFP.
Did Trump’s return to the White House affect the group’s decisions?
Donald Trump’s return as US president has also affected OPEC+’s production increase streak this year, according to Francis Perrin, head of research at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS).
“The Trump factor is absolutely necessary” in explaining OPEC+ production increases, Perrin told AFP.
Shortly after taking office in January, Trump called on Riyadh to increase production to lower oil prices.
Perrin said Saudi Arabia, the world’s leading oil exporter and the most influential member of OPEC+, has made the alignment of US interests “an important asset” in its diplomacy with Washington.
Trump also agreed to many requests from Riyadh during Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s recent visit to the United States.
For example, the two countries approved a joint declaration on civilian nuclear energy and signed an agreement giving Saudi Arabia access to advanced American-made artificial intelligence systems, according to Washington.
Perrin said that the barrel price of Brent, the global benchmark for crude oil, is around 60-65 dollars, which suits Trump.
Although the price is relatively low, it is high enough for U.S. producers to make a profit and maintain current production levels.
Why is there no production increase in the first quarter?
Following the latest increase in quotas in December, V8 had warned last month that there would be a pause in production adjustments in the first quarter of 2026, citing weak seasonal demand.
For this reason, this time, “we do not expect much to come out of this meeting,” Fustier said.
“OPEC+ will not want to get in the way of any outcome of ongoing negotiations regarding the war in Ukraine.”
While easing tensions in the war between Russia and Ukraine reduces the geopolitical risk premium driving up crude oil prices, a deadlock in negotiations could shift producers’ attention back to US sanctions on Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft.
