Tennessee special election pits Democrat Behn against Republican Van Epps

We’ll find out Wednesday morning whether Tennessee’s special election is really a referendum on country music, pedal taverns and bachelorette parties.

Or if we can extract a deeper political meaning from the results of the special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District.

Democrat Aftyn Behn is trying to tip the scales in her party’s favor in a district where President Trump leads by nearly 20 points and former Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.) won by a similar percentage last fall.

Behn faces GOper Matt Van Epps. This is a Republican district. But political observers are watching the race to gauge potential weakness in President Trump, softness in the Trump coalition, problems with the Republican brand or early signs of a possible blue wave in the 2026 midterm elections.

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It was Behn who declared she hated Nashville a few years ago. “I hate singles, I hate pedal taverns, I hate country music. I hate everything that ostensibly makes Nashville a ‘city,'” Behn complained.

The only things left out in Behn’s hostility towards Music City were insults to The Grand Ole Opry, hot chicken and Goo Goo Clusters. But if voters react to Behn on Tuesday, Republicans will face another kind of cluster. Behn’s victory could spell big trouble for Republicans and President Trump heading into the midterm elections.

Behn has been described as “Tennessee’s AOC,” a reference to progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. Republicans are sure to boomerang against Behn, arguing that he is out of tune with the district, leans too far to the left, and is closer to the liberal values ​​of New York or Los Angeles than Nashville. Republicans don’t think Behn is a good fit for Nashville. It’s like Bad Bunny performing at the Ryman Auditorium.

“It shouldn’t even be close. But it is,” Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., said on Fox.

So Republicans are pouring money into keeping the seat. Democrats are pouring money into stealing the seat. If the Democrats pull off this defeat, the party should rip out the goal posts at FirstBank Stadium in downtown Nashville and throw them into the Cumberland River. Just like Vanderbilt fans did last year when the Commodores upset number one Alabama.

Let’s explore what a Behn win could mean for Republicans. This may indicate that voters are tired of President Trump. Or that the GOP brand is toxic. Or maybe it’s just a continuation of a trend that Democrats have enjoyed this fall: near blowout wins for New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill and Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger.

But there is a disadvantage for Democrats. Yes. They can turn the seat. But a win could also indicate that the party is shifting further to the left. Whatever Behn’s line of progress, it would be hard to argue with success if he prevails. But it might give other liberals ideas on how to win in other red or purple districts. This may work to the detriment of Democrats; especially since all Republicans except President Trump highlight the leftist politics of New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani.

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Democrats will likely need to elect more centrist candidates in purple areas to regain control of the House of Representatives. Behn’s victory could pave the way for a host of progressive candidates in competitive House districts across the country. Behn’s message, or Ocasio-Cortez’s or Mamdani’s, will not work in most places where Democrats need to be successful to take control of the House of Representatives.

What if Republicans retain the seat and Van Epps wins?

It probably depends on how much.

Yes, there were five special elections that Democrats made competitive in 2017 (President Trump’s first year in office). They were all closer than they should have been. But Democrats couldn’t win any of them. Yet astute political observers have suggested that there is discontent with the president and the GOP agenda. Democrats won 41 seats in the 2018 midterm elections and took control of the House of Representatives.

So even if Van Epps wins, examine the margin. And if Behn wins, let’s see if Republicans downplay it because it’s a special election and traditional voters don’t participate in the special election. Especially one stuck between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

If Republicans take the seat, the GOP will argue it’s a rejection of a leftist like Behn and someone who can’t keep up. They will also argue that this is a GOP seat and Republicans should win anyway. That’s what happened during the consternation ahead of two special elections in Florida earlier this year. But Rep. Randy Fine, R-Fla. and Jimmy Patronis, R-Fla. They won in March.

If Van Epps wins, it is still necessary to pay attention to the difference. The seat, last held by former Rep. Mark Green, has a lead of over 20 percentage points over President Trump in 2024. (Nicole Hester/The Tennessean/USA TODAY NETWORK, via Imagn Images)

Another thing to consider is the message that media organizations and political observers glean from the election results. After all, special elections are always special. It is natural for analysts and journalists to look for specific meanings or signposts in these contests. It was the same in off-year elections in New Jersey, Virginia and New York City. Sometimes these observations are spot on. Other times they mean nothing. On the contrary, there is a tendency to over-illuminate the results of these competitions. They are moments in time. It’s like listening to a few bars of a song. Maybe it says a lot about the song. Maybe not.

If Behn prevails, House Republicans may panic. There’s a lot of grumbling among Republicans. Some were disappointed with how their leaders handled the government shutdown. Others may follow the lead of Mark Green and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., and head to the exits early.

This is a sensitive time for House Republicans. That’s one reason why a move from this chair means a little more.

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Yet switching seats in House special elections is rare. Former Rep. Don Cazayoux, D-La., won a special election in Louisiana’s red district in 2008 following the resignation of former Rep. Richard Baker, R-La. But current Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., later won that seat in the general election and served in the House of Representatives before moving to the Senate.

Former Rep. Mayra Flores, R-Texas, flipped the seat held by former Rep. Filemon Vela, D-Texas, in 2022. However, he lost re-election that fall.

Former Rep. Mike Garcia, Calif., won a special election in 2020 after former Rep. Katie Hill, D-California, resigned just a few months into office. Garcia held the seat until California Rep. George Whitesides defeated him a year ago.

Former Rep. Charles Djou (R-Hawaii) won a special election in Hawaii in 2010 against two Democrats (former Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, D-Hawaii, and Rep. Ed Case, D-Hawaii). But Democrats regained the seat in 2012.

Former Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, won a special election in 2022 to flip Alaska’s general district from red to blue following the death of the late Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska. Young held the seat for nearly 50 years. But Rep. Nick Begich III, R-Alaska, defeated Peltola last year.

Winning seats in special election troubles does not mean that the seats are permanently in the hands of the opposing party. Rep. Nick Begich III, R-Alaska, who unseated his Democratic predecessor, former Rep. Mary Peltola (herself a special election winner), is a prime example. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc. via Getty Images)

In short, even if someone flips the seat, it’s rare for them to keep the seat for long. Most often, only through the next regular election.

Let’s issue a word of caution as we evaluate Tuesday night’s election results. This is to be expected if Republicans take the seat. If Democrats flip the seat, some will declare it the second coming of the Music City Miracle.

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But frankly, probably not.