Drought continues but farmers find ‘paydirt’ at last
A high-level economic forecast shows strong livestock markets and a stable national crop value are poised to line the pockets of Australian farmers.
The value of agricultural, fishing and forestry production in Australia is expected to reach a record high of $106.4 billion in the 2025-26 financial year.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) estimate is $14 billion more than the previous year.
Agricultural production alone is expected to total $99.5 billion, the highest figure on record, said ABARES Executive Director Jared Greenville.
“Livestock prices continue to strengthen, supported by strong global and domestic stocker demand, with the value of livestock and livestock product production rising despite sheep, lamb and cattle production declining,” Dr Greenville said on Tuesday. he said.
“The combined export value of agriculture, fisheries and forestry is expected to rise to $83.9 billion in 2025-26, setting a new record.”
Farm profitability is also expected to increase; average broadacre farm cash income is projected to reach $227,000 per farm in 2025-26.
Australia’s national winter crop outlook also remains strong; production is on track to reach 66.3 million tonnes (the second largest winter crop on record).
Dr Greenville said harvest was continuing well in all states, with significantly above average yields reported in northern NSW, Queensland and Western Australia.
However, the dry spring in some parts of southeastern Australia negatively affected the yield in these regions.
“These latest forecasts highlight the continued strength, resilience and global competitiveness of Australia’s agriculture, fisheries and forestry sectors as we move into 2026,” he said.
This was despite a drier than normal summer across much of Australia.
The only anomaly in the positive outlook is that wine grape production and prices will decline in 2025-26.
Production is forecast to fall by 11 percent to 1.4 million tonnes; This is 10 percent below the 10-year average.
With difficult seasonal conditions and rising input costs on the horizon, the situation is not expected to get any better.
At the same time, reduced domestic and foreign consumption is expected to continue to limit winemakers’ demand for grapes in 2025-26, further suppressing prices and reducing incentives for wine grape production.
