Australia must be prepared to act in regional conflict
However, despite the difficulties, the Chinese army and economy clearly prepare for the possibility of invading Taiwan. Last year, he stocked basic resources (cereal, oil, cobalt, copper and iron ore) and focused on increasing amphibious skills, including bridge -like structures suitable for Taiwan’s shallow beaches. Among the condensed drills and sharper discourses, these preparations invaded a real
Probability – and may be more reasonable.
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A great flaw in Australia’s Taiwan debate is simple “Aren’t we going to intervene?” Framing that assumes that any conflict will be limited to Taiwan. In fact, an invasion would be much more complex. The geography of the Taiwan Strait, the weather and Taiwan’s defenses make him a challenging task. This difficulty was strengthened by the US and Japanese intervention expected from the bases in Japan and the Philippines, and will try to neutralize China as a preventive.
Any invasion will almost certainly trigger a wider regional conflict with at least two of the key allies of Australia and at least two of the closest security partners. In a region -wide conflict, Australia’s national security interests will be endangered and there will be very few options other than responding. The key role will be to defend Australia and sea communication.
Even if there is no strategic place for current US military rotations or Australia for American operations, staying among them will be inconsistent with our national interests. Australia’s security, including maritime trade, will be directly threatened. I’m not even talking about Australia’s obligations under the 1951 Anzus Treaty.
In addition, Australia’s key security partners and regional neighbors would seriously damage reliability. Moreover, if China resorts to forcing against Taiwan, it is unlikely to stand there. Beijing is also interested in Southeast Asian states, South Korea and Japan with maritime and regional disputes. A successful invasion will strengthen more aggression.
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China’s invasion of Taiwan will not be an isolated action – it will trigger a regional conflict with direct results for the safety of Australia. An invasion may not be close or inevitable, but China’s open preparations require serious interest. Australia should invest in its own defense – not because the war is certain, but because it depends on the ability to deterrent. And if deterrence fails, we must be ready to defend our vital interests.
Jennifer Parker is a defense and national security expert at Anu’s National Security College. He has been serving as a war officer at the Royal Australian Navy for more than 20 years.
