As lead changes in knife-edge Honduran election, will Trump fail to get his way?

The leadership changed hands in the Honduran election with just over two-thirds of the votes counted.

Former vice president Salvador Nasralla has a small but potentially significant lead over his opponent, Nasry Asfura, the conservative former mayor of Tegucigalpa. However, Asfura’s National Party continues to inform journalists that they have the numbers to ensure final victory.

The race is still on a knife edge.

In Washington, President Donald Trump pinned his hopes on nothing but a decisive victory for Asfura and sought to directly influence the race to support his favorite candidate.

Whether he’s hinting that funds might be withheld from the impoverished Central American country or making false claims about election fraud, many in Honduras see the US president’s fingerprints all over this election.

This is similar to the treatment Honduras expected from Washington during the Cold War, according to Honduran political analyst Josue Murillo.

“No government should come here and treat us like a banana republic. It’s disrespectful,” he says in a cafe in Tegucigalpa.

“Donald Trump telling us who we should elect violates our autonomy as a nation, and that affects our elections.”

Regardless of whether the National Party achieves victory or not, one of their notable figures is already celebrating.

On Monday, former President Juan Orlando Hernandez walked out of prison in Virginia a free man, having served just one year of a 45-year sentence for drug trafficking and weapons charges.

His release came after Trump urged Honduran voters to vote for Asfura.

Hernandez was unexpectedly pardoned by Trump despite being found guilty by a New York court last year of running a drug conspiracy that brought more than 400 tons of cocaine into the United States.

His time in office was also marred by allegations of serious human rights abuses by police and security forces, particularly against government critics.

So when Hernandez was arrested in 2022, extradited to the United States and eventually imprisoned, most Hondurans celebrated it as a rare moment of justice, especially in a country steeped in institutional impunity for political elites.

Trump argued otherwise, telling reporters aboard Air Force One that “the people of Honduras really thought (Juan Orlando Hernandez) was set up, and they thought it was a terrible thing.”

Journalists in Honduras who have covered the rise and fall of Hernandez — from the moment he rose to national prominence following the 2009 coup to his extradition — have generally struggled to recognize this description of the hated former president.

However, he still has supporters, especially in the National Party. And no one was more vocal in defending his innocence or asking for forgiveness than his wife, Ana Garcia Carias.

I spoke with the former First Lady, who described Mr. Hernandez’s release as “like being in a dream, like a dream coming true.”

“We spoke to him this morning (Tuesday) and he is in a safe place. We were so happy that my mother-in-law and I got all the kids on the phone and shared a moment of happiness, laughter and prayer together.”

In terms of the future, the question now arises as to whether Mr. Hernandez will attempt to return to Honduras. Ms. Garcia Carias says her potential return depends less on the election outcome and more on whether authorities will guarantee her safety.

“It depends on the security guarantees they give him in this country,” he says.

“Thank God, this government, which is about to withdraw, has used hate speech about my husband every day, talking about his persecution. And that is very dangerous for a former president, to go back to a place where there is hatred against him from the very top, from the president to the lowest-ranking official.”

Ms. Garcia Carias claimed that Mr. Hernandez was the victim of “rule of law,” the “deep state” and a “politically motivated witch hunt” by the Biden administration. I explained to her that the case against her husband was prepared largely by the Drug Enforcement Administration and the U.S. Department of Justice during Trump’s first term, not by President Biden.

It was a point he quickly rejected.

“Prosecutors also claimed this, but I think it is very illogical,” he argues. “Who would think it would make sense to bring into meetings a man they say is a co-conspirator with the CIA and DEA to hand over classified information related to national security?”

“There was a political campaign (against him) involving figures in the Biden administration,” he insisted, “and I think the facts were manipulated after the fact.”

Ms. Garcia Carias publicly acknowledged the role of two MAGA heavyweights in securing her husband’s pardon: influential conservative political consultant Roger Stone, who also benefited from the Trump pardon, and former Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz.

“They were both involved in the case,” he says. “I recognize them and thank them for their contributions. I actually spoke with Mr. Stone on his radio show on Sunday, and he said he took a letter he wrote from Juan Orlando on his birthday to ask for a pardon and forwarded it directly to President Trump.”

Meanwhile, vote counting continues for another night in Honduras.

As ballots continue to be counted, it will soon become clear whether Trump will have his way in Honduras and whether a new ally will be elected in the country just as he pardoned a former ally.​