Wind and solar, and not nuclear, the key to cheaper energy, CSIRO report finds
New CSIRO modeling has found that a mix of solar farms, onshore wind turbines, energy storage assets and gas is the cheapest option for the future of Australia’s electricity grid, but adding nuclear energy, carbon capture or offshore wind projects will increase energy prices.
The Commonwealth science agency’s latest cost estimates confirm that an energy system dominated by backed-up renewables is the lowest-cost way to replace the country’s fleet of decommissioned coal-fired power plants while meeting growing electricity demand and reducing net emissions to zero over the next 25 years.
The draft CSIRO report, due to be published on Wednesday, comes amid renewed political debate over the cost of Australia’s energy transition, with the Coalition fighting to scrap the Albanian government’s clean energy targets and arguing taxpayer funds should be made available for technologies such as carbon capture and storage and nuclear power.
Today’s average wholesale electricity cost (the amount retailers pay for electricity before selling it to customers) is around $129 per megawatt-hour on the east coast. CSIRO estimates Labour’s target of an electricity grid 82 per cent powered by renewable energy by 2030 could see wholesale electricity prices rise to $81 per megawatt-hour, or $91 per megawatt-hour including the cost of transmission lines.
But experts and industry leaders warn that the rollout currently lags behind the pace needed for the government to meet this target, and an urgent increase in investment and project approvals is needed to achieve this target.
By 2050, wholesale electricity is expected to cost between $115 and $124 per megawatt-hour, making it cheaper than today, the CSIRO said. The agency said it would be between $135 and $148 per megawatt-hour when the cost of transmission lines is taken into account.
But adding “first-of-its-kind” technologies such as carbon capture and storage offshore wind farms, alongside solar and onshore wind farms to deliver net-zero emissions by 2050, would further increase projected average electricity costs, he added. The CSIRO said nuclear remained the “consistently highest cost” option.
“Solar PV combination [photovoltaic]In all cases studied, onshore wind, storage, and natural gas or hydrogen were the lowest-cost technology mix; “The addition of carbon capture and storage, offshore wind and nuclear was leading to higher average electricity costs,” he said. Generation Cost Report prepared jointly by CSIRO and the Australian Energy Market Operator.
CSIRO energy director Dr. Dietmar Tourbier said building Australia’s future electricity system would come at a cost under any potential scenario. “Generation Cost “It plays a vital role in producing and sharing reliable, evidence-based information with stakeholders to help understand this cost,” he said.
Jackie Trad, chief executive of the Clean Energy Council, which represents renewable energy developers, said the figures showed Australia could replace decommissioned coal capacity while maintaining affordability and reliability for households and businesses.
“Research consistently shows that if Australia wants affordable energy as coal is phased out, the answer is to generate more renewable energy, invest in storage and compaction, and keep the system flexible,” Trad said. “Delaying the transition or forcing higher-cost technologies will only increase bills.”
Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the findings showed renewables, backed by battery storage, hydropower, transmission lines and fast-on-board gas “peaking” installations, were “the best way to keep the lights on and put downward pressure on bills”.
“Generation Cost It also confirms that the Coalition’s obsession with expensive aging coal and nuclear will mean higher costs, higher bills and decades of waiting for a plan that doesn’t stack up,” Bowen said.
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