China’s Mega Dam Project: Could Brahmaputra Become A ‘Water Bomb’ For India? | Explained | India News

China continues to pursue one of its largest and most controversial infrastructure initiatives, a vast hydropower system on the Yarlung Tsangpo river, a project that could have profound consequences for India, Bangladesh and the fragile ecosystems of the Brahmaputra basin. Rising in Tibet, the Yarlung Tsangpo flows into India as the Brahmaputra, a critical lifeline for millions who rely on it for agriculture, fishing and daily water needs before crossing into Bangladesh. Experts warn that large-scale interventions in the river’s upper reaches could alter the river’s natural rhythm in ways that cannot be fully understood.

According to CNN, the $168 billion project will take advantage of a dramatic 2,000-foot altitude drop to generate electricity. While Beijing supports the plan as a major source of clean energy, experts warn it risks displacing indigenous communities and destabilizing one of Asia’s most fragile river systems.

The plan involves a complex network of dams, reservoirs and underground power plants connected by tunnels, making it one of the most ambitious hydroelectric projects ever attempted. Brian Eyler, director of the Energy, Water and Sustainability Program at the Stimson Center in Washington, called it “the most advanced program the planet has ever seen,” adding: “It is also the riskiest and potentially the most dangerous program.”

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs dismissed fears of harm downstream, saying the project had undergone “decades of in-depth research” and authorities had “implemented comprehensive measures for engineering safety and ecological protection to ensure it does not adversely affect downstream areas.”

But the consequences for India are significant. Any change in water flow in the upper Brahmaputra could disrupt sediment transport, fish migration and seasonal flooding, processes vital to agriculture and biodiversity downstream. Although the river receives significant runoff from monsoon rains and tributaries in India, experts say upstream regulations can still disrupt the river’s natural pulse.

The project also carries strategic implications. “If you connect the dots of Chinese infrastructure development in the Himalayas, especially in areas where China borders India along Tibet, you see that they are strategically placed,” said Rishi Gupta, deputy director of the Asia Society Policy Institute in New Delhi. “The project is in line with China’s broader goal of exploiting its natural resources to consolidate its control over critical regions such as Tibet and its borders.”

Environmental concerns are further compounded by the ecological sensitivity of the Yarlung Tsangpo region, which borders national nature reserves and is home to endangered species such as Bengal tigers, clouded leopards, black bears and red pandas. Scientists and human rights groups have long questioned whether major infrastructure projects make sense in such a sensitive region.

The human cost remains another unresolved issue. Tens of thousands of people live in the project-affected districts, including indigenous groups such as the Monpa and Lhoba, who are among China’s smallest officially recognized ethnic minorities. Chinese officials have acknowledged that the plan would require the “relocation of local communities” in Tibet.

“People may face forced displacement from their ancestral homes… destruction of local income sources, destruction of local ecological balance and wildlife habitat, migrant workers from China replacing local populations in the area,” said Tempa Gyaltsen Zamlha, deputy director of the Tibet Policy Institute in Dharamsala.

Concerns were also voiced by Indian political leaders. In July, Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu warned that the project posed an existential threat to the state and could be weaponized as a “water bomb”.

“China cannot be trusted. Nobody knows what they will do and when they will do it,” Khandu told Press Trust of India, warning that sudden water release or prolonged water outage could flood or dry out large areas of the region.

New Delhi said it was “carefully monitoring” China’s plans and vowed to take “necessary measures to protect our interests, including preventive and corrective measures to protect the lives and livelihoods of Indian citizens.”

China’s management of the Mekong River has further fueled skepticism. Operators of Chinese dams on the Mekong have been accused of exacerbating droughts in downstream countries such as Vietnam by regulating flows to maximize energy production, allegations Beijing denies.

Uncertainty is already influencing decisions in India. Officials at the country’s largest state-backed hydropower company are working on a proposal for an 11,200-megawatt dam on the Brahmaputra, partly in response to developments upstream.

Given that both countries are pursuing massive projects on the same river system, analysts warn of increasing risks. Eyler argues that cooperation can reduce the dangers. “Some risks could be avoided if the two countries could work together on the overall design of the mega-dam system,” he said. Without such coordination, “the dam-building race between India and China is a race to the bottom,” he warned.