What Does Bangladesh Want From India; Will Dhaka Turn Tough On New Delhi After Elections?

New Delhi: Relations between Bangladesh and India have been tense following the removal of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from power in August last year. As the country gears up for elections in February next year, New Delhi has emerged as a prominent issue in domestic politics.

The Indian High Commission in Dhaka and its subsidiary missions across the country have been facing threats in recent weeks. India is closely monitoring the upcoming elections as they could impact bilateral relations for years to come.

The recent unrest in the country started after the murder of 32-year-old Sharif Usman Hadi on December 12. He was part of the movement that led to Hasina’s ouster on August 5, 2024. He was shot in the head by masked assailants on motorcycles as he launched his campaign for the February elections in Dhaka. He died six days later on December 18.

Following his death, allegations on social media that the attackers crossed into India sparked anger among Hadi’s supporters. Crowds began gathering near the Indian High Commission in Dhaka as leaders of the National Citizen Party demanded the removal of the Indian High Commissioner.

In addition to Dhaka, India has deputy High Commissions in Chattogram, Rajshahi, Khulna and Sylhet. Protests and threats caused visa application centers to be closed for a day. India summoned Bangladesh’s ambassador in Delhi and requested authorities in Dhaka to ensure the security of their mission.

Attacks also targeted media offices in Bangladesh. Publications such as The Daily Star and Prothom Alo were affected. Hasina’s critics accused these media outlets of being allies of India, but both publications opposed Hasina’s government and supported student-led protests last year.

Hasina has been residing in India since August 2024. He was sentenced to death in Bangladesh, and the interim government led by Muhammad Younis requested his extradition, but India refused. The Bangladesh government has repeatedly expressed its displeasure over India’s rejection.

The international community, including India, is watching the elections closely. New Delhi emphasized that it supports the free, fair and inclusive elections held in Bangladesh on December 14 in a peaceful environment.

Analysts say “inclusive” implicitly means including Hasina’s Awami League in the electoral process; However, the Bangladesh government has avoided using the term and stated that it only aims for high-standard elections that encourage voter turnout. The interim government argued that such an environment did not exist in the last 15 years.

Bangladesh’s foreign affairs adviser Tauhid Hussain reportedly rejected India’s comments, saying Dhaka did not need advice from a neighboring country on how to conduct elections.

Historically, India has maintained strong relations with Hasina’s government. In contrast, its ties with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) government are less smooth. The condition of BNP leader and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia is not good at the moment. Earlier this month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi prayed for his health and offered all possible help; this is seen as signaling India’s softer approach towards the BNP.

Zia, who took charge of the BNP after her husband’s murder in 1981, became a major player in Bangladeshi politics for over four decades. She became the first female prime minister of Bangladesh in 1991 and served for many terms.

BNP boycotted the last three elections but supported anti-Hasina movements starting in 2024. BNP is the largest political party in Bangladesh and is expected to have a strong presence in the upcoming elections.

Experts said Hasina’s presence in power has affected the current course of Bangladesh. Former Indian Foreign Minister Nirupama Rao argued that although Hasina faced criticism abroad, she maintained stability in a complex and densely populated country with a history of violent political culture.

He underlined that Hasina is not a revolutionary, but a stabilizing force that controls extremist organizations, protects minorities and keeps Bangladesh geopolitically updated.

Rao also said his critics had overemphasized the role of the democratic Opposition, allowing street-level extremist forces to gain power, and that historical assumptions about the overthrow of authoritarian leaders, which contributed to liberal democracy, were misleading.

He argued that these miscalculations led to political instability and normalized oppression following Hasina’s ouster.

Other experts share the same opinion. They also said Hasina was a barrier against violent elements. He explained that his removal created a power vacuum that extremist groups were quick to exploit. Counter-revolutionary elements gained ground, leading to widespread violence against religious minorities and Awami League supporters; The interim government portrayed these events as a “revolution”.

They highlighted the irony of imposing electoral restrictions first on student organizations and then on the Awami League before democratic elections were declared. He said that Hasina and her party members were sentenced to death in a show trial, which deepened social divisions, and that the interim government remained unelected for more than a year.

Bangladeshi political analyst Yusuf Khan countered that it was an easy deviation to blame all the current chaos on Hasina. He argued that the main responsibility for today’s disorder belongs to him and the political structures he established.

Although Hasina may have been criticized, she did not encourage violence in the streets; However, the forces he resisted are now creating unrest and repeatedly blaming him for the post-dismissal chaos, thus evading responsibility.

As Bangladesh approaches its elections, analysts warn that the country faces ongoing instability and political violence regardless of the government that comes to power. The outcome will have implications for India and its relations with the wider international community.