Rising prices, closing early and no Christmas parties: Festive season ‘perfect storm’ leaves pubs on the brink
When Jo Loring started running the Cozy Dove pub in Newcastle 11 years ago, she would have to let customers out the door at 11pm to make sure she could close for Christmas.
Now, after a year of unremitting financial difficulties, it says it is likely to close early this year, with fewer punters hearing the bell ringing for final orders.
“We’ll close early because there’s hardly anyone around,” he says IndependentHe added that he thought there would be a decrease of approximately 20 percent in sales compared to last year. “You could call it the perfect storm,” he says. “It’s a very different landscape and it’s constantly changing and all the bars around me are saying similar things.”
Loring is one of countless pub owners across the UK who fear this will be one of the toughest festival seasons the industry has ever seen.
Dawn Hopkins, 56, who runs the Rose Inn in Norwich, said they had to deal with a “tsunami of cost increases” that had hit independent businesses hard. Like many other pub owners, he will be offering more expensive beers this Christmas, with most expecting a rise of between 30p and 50p per pint.
Hopkins, who is also vice-president of the Pub Campaign, says: “I’m hearing from people that they’re really quiet and a bit anxious. Some are hoping to make it by Christmas Day but I don’t know if they’ll make it.”
Figures from professional organizations reveal that one bar will close its doors every day in 2025, and more than 400 bars will close in 2024. The closures come amid an ongoing struggle in the years since the pandemic, alongside what many bar owners believe are hostile fiscal measures introduced by successive governments.
Alastair Scoular took over family pub The Steam Packet Inn in 1995, but says he never knew the situation for pubs in rural Scotland was “so difficult” now.
“Christmas in Scotland is usually much busier over the new year and we host a lot of parties over the next period – but we definitely haven’t been able to get the same number of bookings,” he says.
“We’ll do what we can, but this won’t be a golden time to help us get through the winter. I would rely on a certain amount of income to get us through January and February, but not this year.”
Tom McNeeney has run The Oxford in Rochdale for 13 years but says the last 12 months have been “discouraging”. He says his pub, which employs 21 people and serves around 1,800 customers a week, has seen an increase in footfall following Covid but is still struggling to make a profit.
“Bars that are still open are busier than ever, but profitability is lower than ever,” he says. “It’s almost impossible to understand what we’re seeing because pubs, busier than they have been in six years, are closing stores as profitability is at an all-time low.”
He adds: “We will be busy in December and will be seen as ostensibly successful, but that’s part of the problem. It’s easy to look at a busy business and assume it’s doing well, but the underlying reality is there’s a real problem staying open.”
Young people, who are most likely to go out and socialize at Christmas, are particularly affected by the loss of approximately 89,000 jobs in the sector, explains McNeeney. He says reforms to business rates, as well as higher pay rates for 16-21 year olds, mean the sector will see this “unemployment epidemic reach new heights”.
“Most people in the under 25 age group are people who go out and explore places in the local area, but unless they have part-time jobs or disposable income, they are not investing in the local businesses and communities around them,” he explains.
He also notes that December, once considered a profitable time of year, is now merely “a down payment for January”, with the pub having to reduce its opening hours and close for a week.
Wesley Birch, 40, who runs a catering company and two pubs in Stroud, explains: Independent This is the first time he and his wife have had to forgo their salaries since they started running Birch Catering 15 years ago.
Birch, who runs the Ship Inn and The Old Neighborhood Inn, says they’ve had to “work it out” this year, even though there’s never been much profit from hospitality.
“We’re really well supported by society – but the problem is there’s no profit margin,” he says, adding that there are concerns people will once again “tighten their belts” following tax increases in this year’s Budget.
He says: “It’s vital to get this much turnover this Christmas, whereas in previous years I’ve never thought about it. I used to have enough profit from this business to give people time off, but this year it’s just not possible.”
Chris Welch, 39, who runs Fishnet Tavern in North Tyneside, says his pub was almost forced to close last January and he fears it will be worse this time.
“I’m so scared this year. I personally feel like I’m trying to do a good job by employing five staff and creating local jobs, but I’m scared of it. It feels like an uphill battle every month. I’m not even getting paid,” she says.
Keir Starmer described pubs and bars as the “beating heart of our communities” and said the government was “supporting them to thrive”.
But Welch says the business rates assessment will rise by an extra £4,000 every year after the budget, describing it as a “disgrace”. “It’s dark times for pubs and I doubt we’ll survive past August next year,” he says.
In Crewe, Jacqui Ayling and her husband Sean believe this could be their last Christmas running Tom’s Tap and Brewhouse. The pair already had to be closed on Mondays and Tuesdays and plans to close on Wednesdays and Sundays during the colder months.
“We can’t afford the overhead of opening the bar for a session in the colder months when our customers are less likely to go out,” says Jacqui.
This Christmas, the duo have had to think harder about getting people through the door after noticing a sharp drop in the number of Christmas parties booked.
“We were doing maybe one or two a week, eight or more in December – but this year we haven’t even done one,” he says. “Companies are also cutting back, so they can’t afford staff parties anymore. That’s had a knock-on effect.”
Fiona Hornsby, 45, runs three bars in Liverpool and is also struggling to attract customers at Christmas. “We’re decorating the exterior this year too, so we stand out a little more so people can see you,” he says. “You have to be everywhere now… It gets harder.”
Gary Timmins, director of pub and club campaigns at Camra, says the extra footfall over the festive period is “vital” and helps businesses get through the quieter months at the beginning of the year. But he adds: “The government also needs to do its bit to reduce costs and give local people a fighting chance by making business rates, VAT and beer tax systems fairer. Otherwise, we risk losing more pubs altogether.”
Business Secretary Kate Dearden said: “Pubs are important parts of our communities and vital to our economy. Running them takes hard work and dedication. We know pubs need our support to deliver and we’ve started this work by capping business rates for most properties at 15 per cent when they face a 45 per cent increase.
“We’re cutting red tape so more pubs can offer outdoor dining and offer more funding to support rural pubs. At Budget, we’ve taken the decision to ask online giants and the wealthiest properties to pay more so local pubs and communities can get the support they deserve.”
