Pollsters claim Reform UK is ‘in decline’ as lead over Labour drops
Reform UK’s lead in the polls fell significantly in the year-end survey; Support for Nigel Farage’s party may have peaked, leading pollsters suggest.
A YouGov poll conducted on 21 and 22 December showed Reform’s vote share falling three points to 25 per cent; This rate was the lowest in more than six months.
Meanwhile, both Labor and the Conservatives gained two points, up to 20 per cent and 19 per cent respectively.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice said the Reformation had fallen steadily since peaking at an average of 32 per cent in September.
He said: “Despite only five companies surveyed, an average reform of 29 per cent was achieved this month. This compares with the peak figure of 32 per cent in September, down one point in the month since.”
“The Conservatives are losing 28 per cent of their support for Reform in 2024, up from 34 per cent in September, and are up several points overall. But there is little consistent sign of Labor recovering.”
Another expert, Lord Robert Hayward, said the results confirmed that support for Nigel Farage’s Reform was “in decline”.
He pointed to a poll commissioned by former Tory treasurer Lord Ashcroft at the weekend which suggested Reform were on 25 per cent, with the Conservatives just three points behind on 22 per cent. Although the Labor Party was at 18 percent in that poll.
He said: “Both polls clearly show the decline of Reform and the rise of the Conservative Party. The Labor figures confuse me.”
Pollster Luke Tryl, of More in Common, added: “This certainly seems to be a decline from the Reformation highs.”
The YouGov poll also shows that populist left-wing support for the Greens has also reversed, falling two points to 15 per cent.
But the decline in support for Reform appears to have coincided with some of the recent struggles of Mr Farage and his party.
The Reform UK leader was accused of using racist and anti-Semitic language during his school days, which he denied.
Meanwhile, Hampshire mayoral hopeful former Rear Admiral Chris Parry has also been embroiled in allegations of racism for suggesting deputy prime minister David Lammy should “go home” to the Caribbean, despite being born and raised in London.
In addition, Reformation has faced embarrassment and questions over its Russia links after the party’s former Welsh leader Nathan Gill was convicted of receiving money from Vladimir Putin’s regime.
The poll also showed a small 15 per cent increase for the Liberal Democrats.
But the findings could be good news for Sir Keir Starmer and Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch, who enter 2026 with question marks over their political future.
However, both are likely to need better-than-expected results to ensure they are not ousted as leaders of their parties in elections to the Scottish, Welsh, London and English councils in May.
