Can a new AI Siri trigger an iPhone super cycle
Apple CEO Tim Cook speaks at an event at the Steve Jobs Theater on Apple’s campus on September 9, 2025 in Cupertino, California.
Manuel Orbegozo | Reuters
Apple A great mulligan moment is coming ahead of the 50th anniversary in 2026.
Apple, which failed to fulfill its promise to launch an artificial intelligence-supported version of Siri in March, said it is on track to do so in the new year.
The risks are too great.
Apple’s AI failure this year has put even more pressure on Apple to deliver a groundbreaking AI experience on the iPhone. Another breeze like this would reinforce the idea that Apple is woefully behind its peers in artificial intelligence and risks losing control of the next big computing platform to a rival. Google or a startup like OpenAI.
Not only that, Apple needs to prove to investors that AI can deliver a meaningful boost in sales after years of post-pandemic stagnation.
How did Apple get here?
Long before the calendar turned to the new year, we knew it would be a tough 2025 for Apple.
with the president As Donald Trump’s inauguration approaches, no major tech company is more exposed to his looming tariff plan than Apple.
And then the question of upcoming artificial intelligence arose.
Apple rolled out limited features for its Apple Intelligence system in the fall, but the actual update, an AI-powered version of Siri that Apple introduced as a key feature in the iPhone 16, is planned for release in early 2025.
Apple shares were reaching new highs in anticipation of a groundbreaking AI experience to be integrated into the iPhone.
It was all for nothing.
It took months for Apple CEO Tim Cook to play politician and win the president’s heart with promises of $600 billion in U.S. investment over the next four years; This culminated in a dazzling moment in the Oval Office when Cook handed the president a glass mug with a solid gold base.
The tactic worked.
Although analysts noted that most of Cook’s promised spending had already been realized, the president thought that was good enough. Trump backed off his demands for Apple to produce iPhones on US soil and gave Cook the tariff reduction he requested.
With the elimination of the tariff issue, Apple shares started to rise. The stock is up nearly 35% since the Oval Office demonstration.
Let’s try again…
Now Apple needs to solve the AI problem.
Following the migration of senior executives, Apple, including AI boss John Giannandrea, has said it has the team to deliver the Siri upgrade in 2026; This could come as much as 21 months after the original announcement.
Apple needs the new Siri to be good. Not only is it good enough to match the capabilities of popular AI chatbots like ChatGPT and Gemini, but it’s also good enough to convince people with old iPhones to upgrade to a new device so they can use it.
Users need an iPhone 15 Pro or better to use Apple Intelligence.
This was the Apple bull case a year ago. Apple Intelligence, especially the new version of Siri, would be so amazing that people would buy a new iPhone just to use it. That elusive iPhone “supercycle” was on the horizon.
No. Maybe next year.
For investors, the best bet is that artificial intelligence will cause a boom in Apple shares.
Unlike OpenAI charges $20 per month to use the full version of ChatGPT, Apple doesn’t charge for Apple Intelligence. Unless Apple changes its strategy and starts charging subscription fees, its only hope will be to use AI to port new iPhones, Macs and iPads.
It’s also paving the way for Apple to launch different types of hardware products, such as smart glasses, which are rumored to be arriving next fall. But don’t count on an accessory like this moving the needle too much at Apple.
Apple rarely misses the success it’s had with AI this year, especially on something as important and transformative as AI. Fortunately for Apple, we’re still at the beginning of the AI game. And this year, with the iPhone 17 series, it has been proven that new hardware designs and features can lead to increased sales.
But he can only miss once. A Mulligan won’t have another chance.
