The Quantum era crept up while you were watching AI
Catherine Thorbecke
Step aside, AI. Another transformative technology with the potential to reshape industries and realign geopolitical power is finally emerging from the laboratory: Quantum.
United Nations declared 2025 International Year of Quantum Science and Technology. It attracts attention with a series of announcements and a slew of hype about a mind-boggling field of science that has long been dismissed as being consistently a decade away from being useful. But that’s how people talked about AI, too, before ChatGPT spurred the current global arms race and investor enthusiasm.
Quantum technology leverages the strange mechanics of quantum physics—how particles behave at the atomic level—to create computers, sensors, and communications hardware that are exponentially more powerful than today’s. Classical computers process information in bits that can be represented as “0” or “1”. Quantum computers use qubits, which, with all due respect, can exist in a superposition of both states at the same time. This allows them to evaluate a multitude of possibilities with extraordinary speed.
As mysterious as it seems, quantum technology has the potential to transform industries from medicine to finance. McKinsey estimates that up to US$97 billion ($145 billion) in worldwide revenue could be generated by 2035. Fellow corporate advisor Bain says it could unlock up to $250 billion in market capitalization, looking at the broader ecosystem.
Artificial intelligence has attracted most of the attention this year. However, if you are not watching closely, here are the things you may have missed in quantum and the things I will pay attention to from now on.
The excitement is increasing; The silent story is how unprepared we were.
The year started with something rare in this space: a viral moment. In February, Microsoft introduced its first quantum computing chip, touting a way to pack a million qubits into a single processor. A stylish YouTube video It broke down some of the jargon usually associated with science, resulting in the declaration: “We are on the cusp of the quantum age.” Some researchers later questioned whether the PR machine had gone too far, perhaps overselling basic science.
However, Microsoft’s striking announcement came after Alphabet Google unveils its own quantum computing chip called Willow in late 2024. And soon Amazon’s cloud unit was teasing its Ocelot chip, which it claimed could reduce quantum error correction costs by up to 90 percent compared to previous approaches. Considering how sensitive qubits are to even the smallest changes in their environment, reducing error rates is one of the biggest challenges.
In June, industry pioneer International Business Machines unveiled an impressively detailed framework for launching a fault-tolerant (i.e., less error-prone) quantum computer by 2029. And in October, Google said it was running a “verifiable” algorithm on its Willow chip, meaning it was running an algorithm that could be replicated on another quantum system. Algorithm “Quantum EchoesAccording to Google, Willow also ran 13,000 times faster than was possible on the world’s most powerful supercomputer.
The sheer pace of quantum activity from Big Tech and startups in 2025 was unimaginable even five years ago. Investors are realizing this and capital is flowing. The momentum is unlikely to fade in 2026.
The US is still ahead, but China is rapidly narrowing the gap. I wrote about this recently, looking at the increase in patent applications; This is the kind of data analysts have previously used to predict the country’s leadership in other sectors, such as electric vehicles. John Martinis, one of this year’s Nobel Prize in Physics winners, warned earlier this month that China was only “nanoseconds” behind.
A new geopolitical race begins. Beijing allocated $15.3 billion in public funds for quantum computing; This is more than eight times the $1.9 billion the United States has pledged.
The West has been largely flattened by China’s rapid progress in artificial intelligence. Can’t afford a repeat. The risks in quantum are arguably higher, but there is no excuse to be surprised by the new discoveries that will come from there in the new year.
Yet, despite all the excitement, the limits of today’s machines are just as real.
At the beginning of the year, Nvidia Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang predicted that we were about 15 to 30 years away from quantum computers being very useful. He later said he was wrong and By June it was announced that the technology could be applied “to solve some interesting problems” in the coming years.” But he is not alone in his protection.
Amazon Web Service’s head of quantum hardware had a similar 15- to 30-year timeline in August. Even some of the industry’s most aggressive forecasts reveal a meaningful benefit after at least five years. The distribution in predictions shows how difficult it is to stabilize qubits and suppress error rates on a large scale.
But this uncertainty is exactly why business leaders need to pay attention to this issue now.
One of the most pressing risks comes from one of quantum’s most famous algorithms. In theory, Shor’s algorithm could allow a powerful enough quantum computer to break much of the encryption commonly used by banks and governments in today’s internet. New “post-quantum” cryptographic standards are being developed, but the question of existing systems becoming obsolete is increasingly a matter of “when” rather than “if.”
A Bain survey this year found that 73 percent of IT security professionals expect it to be a “material risk” in the next five years and 32 percent in the next three years. But only 9 percent said they had a plan to solve the problem.
This disconnect is the real story of quantum’s entry into 2026. Timelines have tightened, money is flowing and a global race is on; but preparation is delayed.
Now is the time for companies and policymakers to create new quantum strategies and talent pipelines, starting with a serious plan for post-quantum security. The excitement is increasing; The silent story is how unprepared we were.
Bloomberg
