How Liberals could win after deputy’s bombshell exit
The state’s Liberal party, which is under pressure after its MP dropped a bombshell on his way out, could still win the upcoming election if it can persuade disgruntled voters to take a chance.
Victorian Deputy Liberal leader and former tennis player Sam Groth has announced he will quit politics at the November 28 state election.
The first-term MP, who made a rapid rise in the party ranks after being elected in 2022, said that serious public pressure on his family in recent months led him to resign.
“Realizing that some of this was coming from my own party was hard to ignore,” he said.
Redbridge pollster and former Liberal strategist Tony Barry said despite Mr Groth’s sporting background he had limited name recognition among voters and his retirement would have little impact on the party.
“In hindsight, he was a political debutant with negligible experience in politics as a staff or party official, and he was on a very steep learning curve,” Mr Barry told AAP.
“Sam was a guy with a clear work ethic, obviously a smart guy, but he was untested and it turned out politics wasn’t his thing.”
Mr Barry said it was a net positive for the party to find another candidate of similar or better quality.
He said the Liberals were still in election contention amid an “incredible” climate of change in Victoria.
The pollster said the majority of voters believed the third-term Allan Labor government did not have the right focus and priorities.
“What they need to see from the Liberal Party is sustained performance and unity, and if the Liberal Party can show that over the next 11 months they could potentially win quite comfortably,” Mr Barry said.
“Right now they (the Liberals) need to give voters a signal or evidence that they are ready.
“It doesn’t need to be a big sign. It just needs to be a sign that they’re worth the chance.”
The Liberal National coalition has 29 lower house seats to Labour’s 54 and will need to flip 16 electors to come into power with a majority after the state election.
Mr Groth’s announcement came after he and his wife Brittany settled a lawsuit against Melbourne’s Herald Sun newspaper over articles stemming from a Liberal MP’s “gossip” about when the pair began their relationship.
He said having to “fight against your own team” makes it impossible to put his voters first.
Liberal leader Jess Wilson said the party’s infighting was “a thing of the past” and her team was focused on the needs of Victorians in the next election.
Deputy Premier Ben Carroll said Mr Groth’s decision showed the Liberals were more divided than ever in 2026.
