How Russia is benefiting from Trump’s Venezuelan oil plan
New data on the shadow fleet shows that a growing number of tankers are seeking Moscow’s protection by changing their registration flag to Russia.
This trend was further accelerated by the United States seizing ships carrying sanctioned Venezuelan oil.
President Donald Trump said US oil companies will invest billions of dollars in Venezuela’s energy sector following the ouster of President Nicolás Maduro. Chevron, ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil are reportedly planning to meet With the Trump administration later this week. Trump too in question The major oil companies will either be “reimbursed by us or through revenue.”
“Over the last month we have seen ships rapidly switching to the Russian flag,” said Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List. “Seventeen shadow fleet tankers have joined the Russian flag by changing false flags in the last few weeks alone.”
One of the latest high-profile sanctioned ships newly registered under the Russian flag is the Bella 1 tanker, which the United States stopped on December 20 while it was transiting to Venezuela to be loaded with sanctioned crude oil.
During this time Bella 1 was registered under the false Guyanese flag. According to Lloyd’s List, Russia notified the United States on December 31 that the ship’s name had been changed to Marinera and its registration had been changed to Russia. The ship left the Caribbean.
According to Automatic Identification System data – real-time information transmitted by ships
– The ship followed by Lloyd’s List is currently near Iceland, heading towards Russia.
“This mid-voyage flag change appears to be an attempt by ship operators to seek protection against US boarding and seizure of the ship,” Meade said.
Lloyd’s List research shows that four days after the Marinera was re-flagged, another sanctioned ship was re-flagged in Russia.
The ship, now called Hyperion, was actually a US-approved tanker that delivered Russian naphtha to Venezuela’s Amuay Bay under a false flag in December. Naphtha is the key ingredient used to dilute Venezuela’s dense crude oil so it can flow through pipelines for export. Hyperion also managed to leave Venezuela unaffected by the US blockade.
“There is no doubt that the Venezuela risk has accelerated Russia’s acquisition of shadow fleet ships,” Meade said.
“All this points to a more permanent evolution of the stay-behind fleet with direct supervision and protection from Moscow,” he said.
“But it remains to be seen how far Russia will be willing to go to protect these ships, which are all engaged in sanctioned trade,” Meade said.
“We are all now waiting to see whether the United States will be ready to directly challenge Russia by intercepting a Russian-flagged tanker,” he said.
Not all of the new Russian-flagged tankers were able to leave Venezuela.
The PM, which was flagged from Gambia to Russia on Dec. 22, sits idle outside the Jose terminal in Venezuela, according to Lloyd’s List ship tracking.
“Intelligence tells us that several ships currently attempting to leave Venezuela are using similarly false flags and may follow other ships to join the Russian registry to continue trading,” Meade said.
More than 40 shadow fleet ships have been registered in the Russian flag registry since June, according to Lloyd’s List.
“The shadow fleet is extremely flexible,” Meade said. “Ships engaged in the Venezuelan trade will now likely divert to the Iran or Russian trade. There is a ready supply of ships that can transit between these trades.”
Lloyd’s List data shows that today more than 12% of the global tanker fleet operates in the shadow fleet.
“Dozens of shadow fleet tankers, many marked by completely false ship registries, regularly pass under NATO’s radar as they move in and out of the Baltic Sea,” Meade said.
“Just like we saw in the Red Sea where there were disruptions to trade routes, it takes time to realign ships,” Meade said. “At some point, we will see how the shadow fleet changes as a result of the recent US sanctions on Venezuela. We may see more of these ships going into the Russian and Iranian trade.”
Meade stated that most of the tankers flying the Russian flag were empty when they changed, and claimed that they wanted protection from Russia before the next loading operation.
Ship tracking by energy consultancy firm Kpler shows changes in Russia’s trade with Venezuela. Since late November, numerous naptha cargoes originating from Russia have diverted, wandered into Venezuelan waters, or reversed course.
Shadow fleet tankers operate outside established insurance regulations.
“There is no evidence that most of these ships have insurance,” Meade said. “Not all of these have been tested. If one of these very old ships had a major leak, there’s no way of knowing who would pay for the cleanup.”
