Iran on edge as Trump threatens action following Venezuela operation amid protests

BEIRUT — The capture of Nicolás Maduro — a Hollywood-like operation in which President Trump said Delta Force kidnapped the Venezuelan leader from Venezuela — shocked friends and foes of the United States, with governments from Colombia to China to France pouring in condemnation.

But perhaps no country has panicked as much as Iran. Facing a new wave of anti-government demonstrations and still recovering from last summer’s U.S. and Israeli attacks, its leaders are now struggling to find themselves in the crosshairs of an administration unafraid of upending the international order.

Recent statements by Trump and his supporters have done little to assuage Tehran’s fears. The day before the Maduro operation, Trump warned the Iranian government that it would be “locked in, primed, and ready to go” if the United States “shoots and violently kills peaceful protesters.”

He repeated the threat Monday, telling reporters aboard Air Force One that if government personnel killed protesters, “I think they’re going to be hit very hard by the United States.”

Other US officials have made the connection between Maduro’s dismissal and Iran more clearly.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R.S.C.), an ardent Trump supporter who has long advocated for action against Iran, wrote in X on Tuesday: “By now, the bad guys have to believe that when President Trump says something, he means it. In my view, the Ayatollah and his cronies are at the top of the bad guys list.”

“President Trump admonished the Ayatollah and his followers for their brutal oppression of the Iranian people,” he wrote on Wednesday.

“One thing is clear: the Iranian regime continues this brutality at its own peril.”

Protests, sparked by a catastrophic devaluation of Iran’s currency in late December, have spread to all but four of Iran’s 31 provinces, including areas traditionally dominated by government loyalists, according to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency. At least 36 people, including 30 protesters, 4 children and 2 security guards, lost their lives in the incidents.

But unlike previous rounds of unrest, when the government ignored international opposition to suppress protests with massive force, demonstrators now appear to have a courageous US president on their side.

“If a US president had said before, ‘We’re going to come and protect the protesters,’ everyone in the Iranian government would have called his bluff and said it wouldn’t happen,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

“But there was a 12-day war in June [between Israel and Iran, with U.S. involvement]. You just had Venezuela. And you have a cowboy president. This is uncharted territory for the regime. “They need to take this seriously,” he said.

There are already signs that this is the case. On Wednesday, Iran’s chief of staff, Major General Amir Hatami, warned of a pre-emptive military strike. “The Islamic Republic sees the intensification of such rhetoric against the Iranian nation as a threat and will not leave its continuation unanswered,” Hatami said in a speech carried by the state-owned IRNA news agency.

“I can say with confidence that the Iranian armed forces are much better prepared today than they were before the war,” he said, promising to “cut off the hands of any aggressor.”

This echoed a similarly offensive statement by the country’s Defense Council on Tuesday, which said Iran could act pre-emptively against enemies if it sees “objective signs of threat” and that “Iran’s security, independence and territorial integrity are an ‘inviolable red line’.”

The Defense Council added that “an intensification of threatening and intrusive rhetoric could be understood as hostile behavior” and could trigger a “proportionate, decisive and decisive response”.

A young Iranian woman walks under an anti-US and anti-Israeli billboard showing symbolic images of coffins of US and Israeli soldiers alongside a statement by Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani that reads “Take care of your soldiers” in downtown Tehran, Iran, on Tuesday.

(Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

However, domestically, the Iranian government has adopted a relatively conciliatory tone regarding the recent protests; Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Saturday that the issues raised in the demonstrations were “valid” but that “mercenaries incited by the enemy” were chanting anti-government slogans.

Although it has threatened that “the rioters must be put in their place,” observers say the government has not yet used its full force against the protesters; This reluctance likely stems from fear of what Trump might do.

“The regime has long had its first go to iron to quell unrest across the country. But repurposing this playbook to quell discontent even more than it already has now opens up the possibility of some form of intervention from the outside — and Tehran’s decision-makers likely don’t know what covert or overt options might be on the table and how targeted or comprehensive they might be,” said Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, a think tank.

“Despite the confidence the regime exudes in its ability to address threats to its stability at home and threats to its security from abroad, it certainly needs to be concerned about its ability to deal with both,” Vaez said.

He added that the appeal of other low-cost and high-reward interventions may seem great for Trump, who has the wind in his hands after the operations in Caracas.

The escalating crises come at a difficult time for Tehran. Over the past two years, he has watched the systematic disintegration of the so-called Axis of Resistance, a group of armed groups and governments that he could rely on to confront the United States and Israel.

A view from a market in Tehran, Iran, on Wednesday as people shop amid rising prices and a rapidly devaluing currency amid the country’s worst economic crisis since 1979.

(Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Israel’s devastating strikes, which destroyed the upper echelons of Iran’s military leadership, exposed profound intelligence failures even as U.S. strikes devastated Tehran’s nuclear program. Sanctions, corruption and mismanagement have left the oil-rich country facing widespread water and electricity shortages. Meanwhile, losing access to Venezuela, Iran’s largest partner in the Western Hemisphere and a key ally in evading sanctions, would further increase Tehran’s isolation.

Still, a beheading attack, presumably aimed at Khamenei, is unlikely to lead to regime change or even behavioral change.

Experts say the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, tasked with defending the government, remains the most organized force in the country and can counter any opposition movement. Harmony between the various security branches remains strong. And the 12-day war with Isreal has spurred the government to appoint MPs in various chains of command.

Meanwhile, Iranian leaders say they have no intention of negotiating.

Khamenei wrote on “We will not bow to the enemy”

But while a preemptive strike by Iran could trigger a momentary moratorium on rallying around the flag domestically for the government, such a conflict would likely bring about the kind of military action Tehran wants to avoid.

“This is a game Iran cannot win,” Geranmayeh said. “But desperate situations force desperate choices, and they all come at a high cost.”