With Maduro gone, Rubio’s political fortunes are tied to Venezuela’s
Simon Lewis and Humeyra Pamuk
WASHINGTON, Jan 13 (Reuters) – Marco Rubio’s extensive influence over Trump’s second administration – juggling multiple roles from secretary of state to national security adviser – has led to a wave of AI-generated memes, including one recently depicting him as the ruler of Venezuela in military fatigues.
The online joke has particular resonance for Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, who has long directed his ire at the communist-ruled country’s most important regional ally, Venezuela, and its longtime leader Nicolas Maduro, who was captured by U.S. forces on Jan. 3 over drug-trafficking allegations.
The military success was a personal triumph for Rubio. But that could be a mixed political blessing for a man who ran for president in 2016 and is considered a leading candidate in 2028.
He is now tasked with steering Venezuela away from the potential chaos left by Maduro’s capture and toward the democratic future he once dreamed of as a young senator, and he has tied his political fate closely to that of the country.
Rubio made an unsuccessful run for president in 2016, losing the primary to Donald Trump and finding himself competing with Vice President J.D. Vance for the Republican nomination in 2028. Vance supports restraint on foreign policy, in contrast to Rubio’s hawkish record; This has led to criticism of Trump by some in the MAGA movement, who view him as a neocon who advocates greater US intervention abroad.
“The administration will be dealing with Venezuela for months and possibly years to come, and this could be a millstone around Marco Rubio’s neck, politically and otherwise,” said Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute.
Vance’s office had no comment for this story.
Deputy State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott disputed any differences in approaches within the administration and said Washington’s phased plan for Venezuela involves political compromise and eventually normalization.
“The entire administration is united to achieve President Trump’s goal: to transform Venezuela from a country oppressed by a narcoterrorist, illegitimate regime that threatens our security, into a stable country that is a partner in the region,” Pigott said.
EXILE POLICY
The Venezuela operation has already burnished Rubio’s image among some online supporters who see him as the competent face of an often chaotic administration.
This also gave him support in his native Florida, where he spent some of his childhood among Miami’s staunchly anti-communist Cuban community; That experience fundamentally shaped his worldview, former aides say.
Republican strategist Cesar Conda, who was Rubio’s chief of staff from 2011 to 2014, said the fight against communism and socialism is “part of his DNA” and “central to his political identity.”
“This is OUR hemisphere and President Trump will not allow our security to be threatened,” Rubio’s State Department social media post this week read.
Rubio’s political base in Florida will be energized by a return to democracy in Venezuela and further strengthened if the administration can unseat Maduro to create change in Cuba, which is dependent on Venezuela for subsidized oil imports. Trump said no more Venezuelan oil or money would go to Cuba and suggested Havana should make a deal with Washington.
Florida-based Republican political strategist Ford O’Connell argued that the Venezuela operation is extremely popular among Venezuelan and Cuban Americans in South Florida, a potential aid to Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections.
Still, he added, Latin America policy is unlikely to influence the Republicans’ 2028 presidential bid. O’Connell said Trump is decisive and is leaning towards Vance as of now.
Trump himself has repeatedly endorsed both Rubio and Vance as potential successors, making it clear that both are frontrunners in his eyes and are also possible running mates for each other.
“I think if they formed a group, they would be unstoppable,” Trump said in October.
A DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION?
Rubio, 54, made his mark in the Senate in his anger at the socialist government in Caracas and particularly its close relations with Havana, and he worked with the first Trump administration from 2017 to 2021 on increasing sanctions against Venezuela.
His first trip abroad as Secretary of State underlined his focus. In February, during a surge in Central America and the Caribbean, he oversaw the formal seizure of a plane piloted by Delcy Rodriguez, then Maduro’s vice president, and held by Dominican authorities.
Rubio supported Trump’s decision to allow Rodriguez to remain in power and spearheaded the administration’s contacts with the new leader. But he has long had ties to Venezuelan opposition leaders, including Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado, and has spoken of the hopes of democracy for Venezuelans.
On Wednesday, he outlined a three-phase plan in which the United States would stabilize Venezuela, help U.S. companies rebuild the country’s energy sector and oversee a recovery in which members of the opposition would be released from prison or allowed to return from exile before finally moving into a transition phase.
On Friday, Venezuela began releasing prisoners and Trump met with oil executives to encourage them to invest.
But the road to a democratic Venezuela is still long.
Will Freeman, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, said it remains unclear whether other senior administration officials are invested in overseeing the full transition.
“How will he convince Trump, and most importantly other administration officials, that it is in their interest for things to go beyond phase two?” Freeman asked.
(Reporting by Simon Lewis and Humeyra Pamuk, Reporting by Gram Slattery, Editing by Don Durfee and Rosalba O’Brien)
