Tariffs, AI top World Economic Forum 2026 risks report

According to the World Economic Forum’s report, global power rivalries and strategic divergences top the list of the most serious near-term risks heading into 2026. Global Risks Report Released Wednesday.

Half of corporate executives and other leaders surveyed said they expected turbulent times in the next two years, while only 1% said they expected calm, according to the report. The resulting picture is of the world standing on the cliff.

The report reveals a changing landscape where geoeconomic conflicts fueled by increased competition and the weaponization of economic tools such as tariffs, regulations, supply chains and capital restrictions are rising to the top of the list of trade concerns over the next two years. The report warns that this could lead to a significant contraction in global trade.

“As countries face high debt burdens and volatile markets, concerns about economic decline, rising inflation and potential asset bubbles are growing,” writes economist Saadia Zahidi, director general of the World Economic Forum, which publishes its annual Global Risks Report.

The world’s largest insurance broker, Swamp – rebranded from Marsh McLennan on Wednesday – partners with the WEF on global risks.

“Today is not a moment of one major global crisis, it is a moment of multiple crises,” Marsh CEO John Doyle told CNBC in an exclusive interview.

Doyle listed trade wars, culture wars, rapid technological revolution and the impact of extreme weather conditions among current obstacles to business.

“It’s a lot for businesses to confront and manage,” he said.

Misinformation and disinformation are second on the WEF’s list of short-term risks, followed by social polarization or widening gaps between sharply opposing groups of people. Inequality has been identified as the biggest interconnected risk of the next 10 years.

The report concludes that all of this poses an obstacle to the kind of cooperation needed to respond to economic shocks.

The most and fastest rising issue in the research, the negative outcome potential of artificial intelligence, rose from the 30th place among short-term risks as of last year to the fifth place among long-term risks in the latest ranking.

Labor displacement, for example, can lead to large increases in income inequality, greater social divisions, a contraction in consumer spending, and vicious cycles of economic contraction and social discontent, according to the WEF report.

The report states that machine learning and quantum computing are converging and their development is accelerating, and warns of an overloaded environment that “could lead people to lose control.”

Still, extreme weather remains the top concern over the next decade among surveyed leaders. Global insured losses from natural disasters are estimated to reach $107 billion in 2025, exceeding $100 billion for the sixth consecutive year; This is a significant increase even compared to the early 2000s.

Marsh CEO Doyle said wildfires in California in early 2025 demonstrated the need for regulation to allow insurance rates to accurately reflect underlying risk to attract more capital to the insurance market.

“There are risk takers. There are investors and insurance companies willing to finance those risks,” Doyle said. “We also ensure building regulations are appropriate, we learn from previous incidents and technologies are implemented so risk can be managed effectively.”

“Extreme heat, drought, bushfires and other extreme weather events are likely to become more intense and frequent,” the report warns.

But environmental risks such as “critical changes to Earth systems,” “biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse,” and pollution ranked significantly lower on the risk list; This reflects a shift in what worries leaders most.

The report concludes that “coalitions of the willing” are vital, collaborations between governments, academic institutions, business and private citizens are essential to build resilience and create workable solutions to our greatest global challenges.