Illegal tobacco trade kingpin arrested. Long live king tobacco

The arrest of Kazem “Kaz” Hamad, the alleged ringleader of Australia’s illegal tobacco trade, is a win for law enforcement, but what does it mean for the trade? criminologist James Martin he asks.

Hamad, who was declared “one of the world’s most dangerous wanted men” by an Iraqi court, is alleged to be the mastermind behind Australia’s violent “tobacco wars”.

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This violent and ongoing underworld turf war has seen more than 260 arson attacks, “countless” incidents. extortion and intimidationtogether multiple murdersincluding a innocent bystander.

During this period, Hamad allegedly accumulated an estimated large fortune. billions of dollars.

Hamad’s arrest will undoubtedly be welcome news for the federal government and the country’s law enforcement agencies, which have struggled to contain the proliferation of illicit tobacco caches and trade-related violence.

However, even if Hamad is extradited and convicted for his alleged crimes, we must be wary of possible unintended consequences; The illegal tobacco trade in Australia will continue under new leadership, which could be more dangerous than ever.

What happens next?

In the short term, Australia’s law enforcement agencies will be on high alert for any outbreak of violence between organized crime groups dealing in illicit tobacco.

This is common in illicit markets during periods of instability, such as the death or imprisonment of a powerful leader.

Rival groups will perceive his arrest not as a deterrent but as an invitation to expand their reach and control over the country’s highly lucrative illicit tobacco market. This was recently estimated to be worth. up to A$7 billion or roughly 40% of the country’s entire illicit drug economy.

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History is full of examples of what happens after powerful organized crime figures are neutralized.

The best example of this was the death of celebrities Cocaine trafficker Pablo Escobar By 1993 it was in the hands of the Colombian police, which fatally weakened the Medellin Cartel.

However, rival cartels quickly took advantage of this opportunity.

The biggest beneficiaries are Cali Cartelhas developed new sophisticated methods of trafficking that are more difficult for enforcement agencies to combat.

Under their leadership, cocaine production increased As did seizures at the US border across Latin America in the years following Escobar’s death.

In short, while Escobar’s death led to major changes in the internal order and functioning of organized crime groups, it had no long-term impact on the increasingly ongoing production, trafficking or consumption of cocaine globally. all time high.

What are the consequences for Australia?

The reason Hamad’s arrest has little impact on Australia’s illicit tobacco trade is the same as Escobar’s:

It does nothing to fundamentally change the key drivers of illicit trade.

These include the persistent and widespread demand for nicotine – Australia’s Third most popular recreational drug After caffeine and alcohol – and the lack of affordable, attractive options for consumers in the legal market.

Australia’s extraordinarily high tobacco tax aims to reduce tobacco consumption. the world’s most expensive cigarette.

A pack-a-day smoker who wants to consume legal tobacco faces an annual bill of approximately $16,000.

as predictedWith this extraordinary imposition Ban on consumer electronic cigarettes -A less harmful tobacco substitute And effective quit aid – has proven increasingly inefficient.

It has pushed millions of Australia’s nicotine consumers into the willing hands of organized crime groups.

These groups sell illegal tobacco at a price well below the legal price; It reportedly sells for as little as $8 per pack. Average pack of legal cigarettes about 40-60 dollars.

Cheap illicit tobacco has now flooded the country and early evidence suggests this has led to the first increase in smoking prevalence in Australia since the 1990s.

These negative consequences point to the limitations of relying too heavily on law enforcement and restrictive regulations to solve social problems that are largely beyond their capacity to control.

Australia’s illicit tobacco market continues Large, profitable and highly sanctions-resistant. No one should be under the illusion that Hamad’s arrest will make a significant difference.

This article is republished from: Speech It is under Creative Commons license. Read original article.

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James Martin is Associate Professor of Criminology at Deakin University. His main research interests relate to illicit markets and cybercrime.