She’s offered to share her Nobel with Trump. But what might Machado ask for in return?

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado may be the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, but she knows there’s only one foreign endorsement that really matters: Donald Trump’s.

He will meet the US president at the White House on Thursday after publicly offering to share the Nobel Prize with him, a prize he has long coveted.

Trump said it would be an “honor” to accept the award, but the Norwegian Nobel Institute said it was not possible to legally transfer the award. Trump had previously criticized the Nobel committee for bypassing him and awarding the award to Machado.

He was largely unsympathetic towards Machado, who was awarded the award for his long struggle for democracy in Venezuela. He won the opposition primary by a landslide in 2023 and was barred from running against Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, whose reelection a year later was widely condemned as illegitimate.

But after Maduro was ousted by a US operation earlier this month, Trump backed Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, saying Machado was not “respected” enough to lead the country.

For his part, Rodríguez said in his first press conference as interim president on Wednesday that Venezuela had entered a “new political era” with greater tolerance for “ideological and political diversity.”

Machado hopes to meet the US president face-to-face on Thursday to convince him that the decision to support Rodríguez’s interim government was a mistake and that the opposition coalition should be responsible for the transition.

When BBC Mundo spoke to Machado after his last meeting with Trump before the US intervention in Venezuela on January 3, he told me that he thanked him for what he had done “for peace, freedom and democracy” and insisted that together they would “liberate” Venezuela.

But immediately following the US operation, Trump announced that he planned to “run” Venezuela himself and that he was content to keep Rodríguez’s interim government in place, saying that he was “essentially willing to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again.”

On Wednesday, Trump told reporters he had a “great conversation” with Rodríguez and praised him as a “great person” after a long phone call.

Could Machado and Trump’s meeting in the Oval Office change all this?

Trump is known to be unpredictable in his personal relationships with other politicians, but how Machado views his role will likely depend less on what he says and more on what Rodríguez does in the coming weeks and whether that meets Trump’s approval.

While Trump’s decision to sideline Machado in favor of Rodríguez shocked many opposition supporters, some are now beginning to understand what might be behind this decision.

Machado is a polarizing figure. Although he is loved by his supporters (who admire, among other things, his ability to unite a previously fragmented opposition), he is hated by the regime and its loyalists for exactly the same reason. To them, he is a formidable and above all outspoken opponent.

Although the government currently has only minority popular support, according to polls and analysts, it maintains tight control over state institutions, including the military.

Armed civilian groups, funded by the state and known as kolektivos, remain an integral part of the pro-government movement.

Expressing public support for Machado or US intervention in this political and security environment is fraught with risks.

Even some of Maduro’s opponents fear what might happen if Trump appoints the opposition leader without holding new elections.

Venezuelans are divided over Trump’s actions, even among those who oppose Maduro.

While some whisper support, others are particularly opposed to US statements suggesting it can control Venezuela and its oil.

The disagreement over who will govern the country is even deeper.

Many Venezuelans admire Machado and consider him the only opposition leader who has maintained a consistent and consistent challenge to Maduro’s government.

Some people here in Caracas told the BBC that Trump, contrary to his claims, has strong support within the country.

They point to his ability to mobilize thousands of Venezuelans in protest when Maduro declares victory in the elections, despite his landslide victory in opposition primaries ahead of the 2024 presidential election and independently verified statistics showing that the candidate supported by Machado won.

This group sees Rodríguez as one of the architects of Maduro’s government and its abuses.

They will want Machado to press Trump at the White House on how the United States plans to “rule” Venezuela and try to convince him that his promise to “make Venezuela great again” by controlling the country’s oil industry, while appealing to some U.S. Maga supporters, does little to restore democracy.

But others agree with Trump and believe Rodríguez should oversee the transition. They see it as the best option to avoid instability that could be triggered by the backlash of supporters of the current government and the collectives.

They would not welcome the opposition coming to power following the US military operation in which Maduro was captured and sent to New York to face drug trafficking and weapons charges.

The army and the collectivos are unlikely to take orders from the opposition at the moment, and some think the status quo is safer, at least in the short term.

A prominent Venezuelan political analyst, who asked not to be named, told the BBC that many believe Trump’s ability to topple Maduro was made possible largely by Machado’s efforts to weaken the regime.

“Personally, I doubt Trump fully believes what he says. If he really thought Machado lacked support in Venezuela, why would he host him at the White House?” he said.

“More than 80 percent of Venezuelans want political change,” he adds. “They believe that the only person who can control the return to democracy in Venezuela is the opposition.

“And most Venezuelans who want change do not believe it will happen under Delcy Rodríguez.”