Has the winter storm shifted north? Models conflict going into weekend
There is no doubt that a winter storm – and a serious one – going right Georgia this weekend, but models differ on how severe the impacts could be and whether the state will see ice or just rain and cold.
Meteorologists say these types of storms have occurred historically hard to modelTherefore, estimates of how much rain or ice Georgia may actually experience vary depending on which model is used.
Earlier in the week, most models suggested severe ice impacts into central Georgia, but some midweek models showed the storm shifting northward.
Here’s what we know.
How much ice could north Georgia see?
One example of a model difference is the measurement of expected ice formation in North Georgia.
The “Euro model,” which refers to the weather model from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), shows only 0.1 inches of ice accumulation is possible in Atlanta. This is enough to cause outages and some power outages, but is less likely to cause widespread destruction. Nearly an inch more of ice will be seen in this model, which is deployed in places like Canton, Gainesville and Cumming.
The “GFS model”, which refers to the Global Forecast System, has much higher predictions. According to this model, Atlanta could see almost an inch of ice forming, and the area around Lake Lanier could see more than an inch, with a much higher damage potential.
Meteorologist Ella Dorsey shared the two models side by side with WANF as of 7:30 a.m. on Thursday.
“Trends in guidance for a warmer event, particularly the European model, have gotten a lot of attention over the last 24 hours,” longtime Georgia meteorologist Glenn Burns said Thursday morning. he said. “While these trends are potentially positive as they will favor rapid erosion of the wedge and less widespread ice accumulation in Georgia, they represent only a fraction of the guidance.”
Bitter cold weather may follow the rainy weekend
Burns says models also show it could be extremely cold in Georgia on Monday, meaning if ice or snow develops over the weekend, it could take some time for temperatures to warm up enough to start melting and make roads drivable again.
The National Weather Service released a report Winter Storm Watch for many North Georgia counties, but monitoring has not yet extended south to metro Atlanta.
“As confidence increases, a southward expansion of the Winter Storm Watch may occur,” NWS Atlanta said in a statement Thursday. he said.
Kemp declares State of Emergency
Governor Brian Kemp made a statement State of Emergency Thursday morning for all of Georgia.
The declaration will last for seven days, but can be extended if the situation warrants, according to a news release from the Georgia Emergency Management Agency. The governor called in 500 Georgia National Guard soldiers; Starting Saturday morning, the state will establish the State Operations Center to coordinate local and federal resources, and the Georgia Department of Transportation will begin improving roads north of I-20 Friday night through Saturday, he said.
Irene Wright is the Atlanta Connect reporter for USA Today’s Deep South Connect team. Find her at X @IreneEWright or email adith@usatodayco.com.
This article first appeared on USA TODAY: Winter storm updates for Atlanta area as models shift north
