How Labour’s civil war meltdown unfolded: Andy Burnham finally makes his move after months of unsubtle manoeuvering as supporters say it’s ‘game on’ for the Labour leadership
Andy Burnham’s announcement on Saturday was the culmination of months of increasingly subtle maneuvering by the Mayor of Manchester.
But when the time came to make his move, he hesitated: did he have enough support among Labor MPs to justify his gamble to stand down as mayor, stand up to the Prime Minister and try to defeat Nigel Farage?
From late Friday evening until Saturday morning, Labor MPs were bombarded with calls from Team Burnham members to assess the extent of their support in the House of Commons.
It was decided that if the number of MPs prepared to support a future leadership bid did not reach three figures, it was not worth the risk.
On Saturday night, a Labor MP who is a supporter of Mr Burnham said: ‘The figure was well over 100 so we decided to get the game on.’
In order for an MP to run for party leadership, he or she must win the support of at least 81 Labor MPs.
As The Mail on Sunday revealed last month, Mr Burnham struck a deal with Ms Rayner before Christmas; Under this agreement, he was promised to return to his former position as Deputy Prime Minister if he supported a victorious campaign.
Sources say Angela Rayner’s public endorsement on Friday was key to Mr Burnham gaining momentum within the Parliamentary Party.
Andy Burnham’s announcement on Saturday was the culmination of months of increasingly subtle maneuvering by the Mayor of Manchester
First, Mr Burnham needs to overcome the apparent determination of Sir Keir Starmer’s allies to prevent him from entering the House of Commons.
Mr Farage boasted that Reform UK would win by-elections in Gorton and Denton
Informed sources also say Ed Miliband, who said on Saturday he hoped Gorton and Denton Labor would have the ‘option’ of choosing Mr Burnham as their candidate, will be Chancellor in the Burnham government.
But many dangers await Mr. Burnham before he can consider turning to leadership. First, he must overcome the determination of Sir Keir Starmer’s allies to prevent him from entering the House of Commons.
Members of Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) will meet to decide whether to block his candidacy, citing party rules that say Labor mayors must seek permission if they want to resign and stand in parliamentary elections.
And the Mayor of Manchester, Mr Burnham, must resign if he wants to win the by-election, as the law states that mayors who are also members of the police and crime commissioners cannot become MPs.
The NEC, which is still majority controlled by the Prime Minister’s allies, will also review whether Labor risks a second by-election to replace Mr Burnham as mayor, amid fears it will allow Reform to take over the prized post.
Apart from the party’s own campaign costs, the Greater Manchester mayoral contest would not come cheap for taxpayers. The bill for the latter left the Greater Manchester Combined Authority with a bill of around £4.7 million.
There is also the small matter that, if he is allowed to run, Mr Burnham will win a by-election at a time when Labor is widely unpopular. Reform is strong in the northwest; Hence Mr Farage’s boast that his party will emerge victorious.
Mr Burnham’s private polling suggests he would win if a by-election were held tomorrow: the ethnic make-up of the area is not the natural heartland of Reformation.
Reform sources acknowledge this point. But Mr Farage has vowed to ‘throw everything’ into the contest and Westminster is littered with the bodies of political opponents who thought they were taking his measure.
Mancunian Zack Polanski is also said to be considering launching a campaign for the seat
British Labor Party’s serial by-election rival George Galloway will run
Mr Burnham could also face a challenge from the Greens’ Zack Polanski, who would split the vote from his serial by-election rival George Galloway on the left.
If Mr Burnham wins the seat he will have to demonstrate his will to challenge Sir Keir, despite yesterday declaring he wanted to support the Government ‘not undermine’.
Unless there is a party-wide decision to hold a coronation for the ‘King in the North’, he is almost certain to face a challenge from Health Secretary Wes Streeting and perhaps Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood.
Mr Burnham will also need to justify the duplicity he has employed in the plots of recent months.
When The Mail on Sunday announced last month that it was planning a deal to take Andrew Gwynne’s seat, he wrote on social media: ‘There’s quite a lot of nonsense in the papers today. Reminds me why I left Westminster!’
Undeniably, it was a classic of its time. Mr. Burnham didn’t actually say he was talking about our story. What he so conspicuously failed to write was: ‘I do not expect to return to the House of Commons and then topple the Prime Minister.’ Because it was.
Labor MPs, who claim to know Mr Burnham’s thinking, expect him to initially make loyalty protests and then – if he gets into the House of Commons – mount a leadership challenge in July. This would follow the expectedly disastrous local election results for which Sir Keir could be blamed.
