The Polanski effect? These charts reveal how much the Greens have advanced | Green party

The Greens talk of a “Polanski effect”, an increase in momentum and visibility since Zack Polanski became leader as the party gains attention in an increasingly fragmented political landscape.

The polls provide the clearest signal yet about whether this narrative is backed by public support. But these aren’t the only things to consider, and experts say it’s hard to be sure of the reality.

Since Polanski’s election in September 2025, the Greens have gained an average of four points in the polls.

The Guardian’s latest poll tracker, which combines surveys from the last 10 days, shows the party polling at 13.5%. This is five points behind Labor on 18.6%.

The chart above shows that the Greens’ average position has increased since Polanski took over the leadership, but experts point out there is disparity in the level of support the Greens receive between polls.

In a poll by YouGov and Find Out Now in January, the Greens received 17%; this rate was significantly higher than Focaldata (10%), More in Common (11%), and Survation (11%).

This may have to do with what exactly the polling companies are asking voters; some pollsters do not include the Greens as an option in their polls, which would lead to lower voter turnouts than if poll respondents had been warned.

Or it may depend on larger modeling assumptions. For example, pollsters disagree on the number of Labor supporters in 2024 who currently support the Greens.

Who’s going to the Greens?

if we look YouGov According to the figures, the poll currently predicts 20% of Labor voters will vote Green. This rate rose to 11% in similar polls in which Polanski took the lead.

Prof Sir John Curtice, of the University of Strathclyde, said: “The polls are very different on that, but the Greens have added to Labour’s woes. We already had a situation where Labor votes were falling apart in all directions, and now that’s even clearer in the post-Polanski world.”

Age is the biggest factor in green support. Not only are 18-24 year olds the most likely to say they will vote Green, they are also the group that has moved most towards the Greens in the last few months.

Voting from: YouGov While 26 percent of those in the 18-24 age group said they would vote for the Greens at the beginning of September last year, it is stated that this rate increased to 45 percent as of January 18-19.

Curtice added that the Greens’ appeal to this demographic group could cause great damage to the Labor Party, especially in the local elections to be held in London in May. “Labour’s vote is mostly young middle-class professionals in London. This is exactly the group the Greens appeal to.”

What are the main problems of green voters?

The cost of living is the biggest concern of all Green party supporters.

But while the economy and Brexit are more important to new Green voters than to existing supporters, Gaza is less important to them. YouGov data from December shows that 30% of new Green voters (non-2024 voters) prioritize the economy, compared to just 18% of existing supporters.

New Green supporters also care less about climate change (7% list it as their top issue) than current supporters (12%).

Adam McDonnell, YouGov’s UK head of political and academic research, said: “There is little difference between those who voted Green at the last election and those who have won since, with both groups highlighting the cost of living, the NHS and the environment as top concerns.

“Those who won’t vote for the Greens in 2024 but now intend to put more emphasis on the economy generally. In terms of positioning, this means the Greens may want to look at economic messages that resonate with the voters they win, which we know from other studies are young, highly educated and relatively affluent.”

An Ipsos poll analyst said Green supporters were aligned with Liberal Democrat and Labor supporters on defense and the NHS, but were more concerned about inequality and had more relaxed views on immigration. They also commented on anti-establishment tensions among Green supporters; They are more likely to distrust authority figures and think there are problems with the broader system.

What are Polanski’s personal evaluations?

Curtice said that with Polanski and Farage on the national stage, “there are now charismatic leaders at both ends of the spectrum. They both have a clear vision. This creates a contrast between them and traditional political leaders.”

According to Ipsos’ poll, Polanski’s current net positive rating is -15 points. As of January 19, 20% of people had a positive opinion of him, while 35% had a negative opinion.

This net favorability rating is better than that of all national political leaders except Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey. But much of that is because 45 percent of the public still hasn’t made up their mind about Polanski or doesn’t yet know who he is.

The majority of people view Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, Davey and Reform UK’s Nigel Farage favorably.

Joe Twyman, founder and director of public opinion consultancy Deltapoll, said positioning the Greens as an anti-establishment party alongside Reform was critical in a political world where incumbent parties were struggling. “There is a desire for a new political movement because the ‘old guard’ appear to have failed. You have options for nationalist parties, but if you want viable rivals at the national level it is either Reform or the Greens; if you are more socially liberal it is the Greens.”

Twyman added that there was a lot of uncertainty about where the Greens would go in a period of political instability: “If you have five- or six-way races and any party can concede that by a five- or 10-point margin over the other, that brings tactical voting to the fore.

“The question is how these parties (Reform and the Greens) can turn their good vote numbers into real voters at the next general election. Previous general election strategies so far have been based on specific groups of voters, but if you have broader ambitions you need to expand into a national campaign. This means asking questions about how to get a party machine with its boots on the ground, knocking on doors, how to turn into a national party. We don’t have answers to these questions yet.”

What might this mean for the election?

In the latest MRP survey, More in Common There are estimated to be 16 seats where the Greens are likely to win more than 30% of the vote.

The voting technique, known as multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) modeling, is designed to help reveal an increasingly chaotic political map by providing predicted results for each seat. The party was predicted to win nine seats in total: mostly urban seats, but they also retained the two rural constituencies they won in 2024.

At the time the survey was published, More in Common said: “The four predicted gains come directly from Labour’s collapse in progressive-leaning urban areas such as Bristol, Manchester and Sheffield, showing that the Greens have managed to position themselves as the progressive alternative.”

This MRP also reveals the potential for tactical voting.

There are 179 seats where the combined vote share of the Liberal Democrat, Green and Labor parties is greater than the Conservative and Reform vote combined. Forty of these are predicted to be won by Reform or the Conservatives, and in eight of these the Greens are the largest of the three progressive national parties.

Looking ahead to local elections in May, Green’s gains in London will be seen as a strong signal that the party is reversing the type of progressive voters it needs to switch allegiance to in the general election. They also announced a big push for midterm elections in Gorton and Denton.