Trump says India trade deal cuts Russian oil, ports still unloading it
The oil tanker “Grinch” (R), suspected of belonging to the Russian stay-behind fleet, is seen under surveillance by the French Navy off the coast of Martigues, near the port of Marseille-Fos, on January 25, 2026.
Thibaud Moritz | Afp | Getty Images
President Donald Trump on Monday announced a U.S. trade deal with India that he said included a promise to stop India’s purchases of Russian oil and potentially buy it from the U.S. and Venezuela, but data shows the shadow fleet of tankers carrying sanctioned crude continues to unload from Indian ports.
Ship tracking shared with CNBC by global data and analytics firm Kpler shows four tankers associated with Russia’s shadow fleet offloading or in the process of offloading sanctioned oil at Indian ports: Giannis, offloading Urals at Chennai Refinery; Nyxora unloading Urals at Paradip Refinery; Tiburon unloading the Urals at the Vadinar Refinery; and Seasons I, which was tracked out of Vadinar on Tuesday morning but has not yet been evacuated, according to Kpler.
In recent months, the global shadow fleet carrying sanctioned oil, estimated to be 1,400 ships in size, has navigated around the US’s tightening sanctions campaign on Venezuelan and Iranian oil and Europe’s interventions against the growing flow of stateless tankers loading Russian crude.
A recent Lloyd’s List analysis of the global stay-behind fleet after US military operations in Venezuela found that of approximately 50 tankers filled with Venezuelan oil, at least five completed deliveries to China with the ship’s Automatic Identification System (AIS) operating normally, suggesting that “enforcement pressure has not yet taken effect.”
The United States recently completed the first sale of Venezuelan oil on the legal crude market.
Sanctioned Russian crude oil also faced increasing sanctions measures. Recently the French seized the Grinch tanker, It left Murmansk earlier this month with a cargo of Russian oil. The French boarded the ship to conduct flag verification, with British assistance in tracking and tracing. The Comoros flag was deemed fake. This seizure was the first example of an EU-UK plan to thwart Russia’s stay-behind fleet. The sanctioning and seizure of the Russian stay-behind fleet is one effort to cut off Russia’s energy revenue in order to reduce Moscow’s ability to continue its war in Ukraine.
India’s imports of Russian oil reached a record level this year.
“In 2025, India’s oil imports from Russia accounted for 33 percent of the country’s total seaborne oil imports and 25 percent of Russia’s seaborne oil exports,” said Bimco chief maritime analyst Niels Rasmussen. he said. “According to US President Donald Trump, a new trade agreement between the US and India could end this trade,” he said.
But Kremlin officials backtracked, telling reporters they did not do this. officially News came from India that the Indian government’s oil purchases will be suspended.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not yet publicly announced the terms of the trade agreement announced by Trump, but Indian officials have said an announcement will come. Trump’s announcement of the trade deal came just days after the EU and India signed a major trade deal that reduced tariffs on many goods to zero within a few years.
The Trump administration has been pressuring India to stop buying Russian oil during the trade war, and Trump said on Monday that India should buy oil from the United States or Venezuela. Even if it stopped importing crude oil from Russia, Rasmussen says it could buy more oil from the Persian Gulf instead.
Before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, two-thirds of India’s imports of crude oil and petroleum products came from the Persian Gulf. According to Bimco, in 2025 these crude oil imports will drop to 45%.
Rasmussen said he did not expect Russian oil exports to fall by a similar amount, as Russia would likely aim to find new buyers for Russian oil, even if that required a higher discount. Shadow fleets are often forced to sell at discounts, and these discounts may increase as global enforcement measures tighten. Russian crude oil is currently traded at a lower price than crude oil sold on public markets because it is subject to sanctions.
Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, said if India closes the door to Russian oil, it would give other buyers more market power as a last resort. “This could put downward pressure on Russian revenues. Barrels generally find buyers. The problem is the price,” he said.
But some analysts warn that a smaller market for Russian oil could make it harder for the shadow fleet to find additional employment in its bid to replace India.
“The only major country that can buy Russian oil is China, and they may already have all the Russian oil they want,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
With less crude oil coming out of Venezuela to fuel the dark fleet and the potential closure of the Indian market, Lipow says many of these ships may remain idled or eventually scrapped.
But Book says the global shadow fleet is affordable, and if there is an opportunity to transport sanctioned oil, owners of those ships will take advantage of it; Venezuela example. “The shadow fleet moves from one demand area to another, and as long as sanctions remain in place against other major producer exporters, you can expect some shadow ships to still be used,” he said. “Tankers in Venezuelan trade will now enter Iran and Russia trade.”
The USA announced that Bella-1 was seized due to violation of sanctions. The ship, known as Marinera after recently re-flagging Russia, was seized in the North Atlantic pursuant to an arrest warrant issued by the US federal court after being tracked by USCGC Munro.
Source: @US_EUCOM | US Coast Guard | through
Despite the sanctions, Russia is rapidly adding to its shadow fleet by re-flagging ships that once carried Venezuelan oil. In December, 17 sanctioned ships were re-flagged to Russia. One of the tankers seized by the US as part of the blockade on Venezuelan oil was a recently re-flagged Russian ship.
Oil analysts say all enforcement actions and tariffs continue to change the economics of crude oil shipments, with discounted sanctioned oil becoming a separate market from traditional shipboard crude oil trading. “Overall trade between nations is important,” Book said. “We’re seeing oil flows shift through sanctions and then shift again through tariffs. There will be logistical costs associated with those shifts.”
The higher costs come from transporting oil longer distances as well as using intermediaries to circumvent sanctions. The key example given by the book was the transportation of Russian oil, which used to go to Europe and now mostly goes to China.
The book explained that economics in the oil refining business, where margins are tight, favor discounted sanctioned oil. “Discounts are extremely attractive to refiners,” Book said, meaning sanctioned oil barrels carried by the dark fleet “will find a home. As long as sanctions are in place, sanctions circumvention and workarounds are possible,” Book added.
These workarounds are a plus for China, the main buyer of Russian and Iranian crude oil. “The more alarming the barrel becomes, the more profit it generates for its buyer and discount for its seller. China will likely continue to look for distressed discount barrels,” Book said.
Marinera oil tanker is seen in Burghead, Scotland, on January 14, 2026. The Marinera oil tanker, formerly known as Bella 1, entered British waters at the request of the US to fill it with “essential material”. The Russian-flagged tanker was seized by US forces between Iceland and Scotland on January 7, 2026, for allegedly violating sanctions by carrying oil to Venezuela, Russia and Iran.
Peter Summers | Getty Images
Lloyd’s Shadow Fleet Tracker, which covers approximately 1,400 ships mainly carrying sanctioned Russian oil, shows an increasing flow of stateless tankers loaded with Russian oil anchored in Malaysian waters. Despite the government’s promise to shut down, the increase continues. Malaysia has a trade agreement with the United States that restricts relations with sanctioned entities.
Maritime intelligence from Kpler shows that pressure from the United States intermediating the Venezuelan oil trade and existing sanctions on Russia and Iran have forced many of these ships to make ship-to-ship transfers as part of efforts to disembark while carrying sanctioned oil.
“It is clear that there are still eager buyers of this sanctioned oil, namely China and India,” said Jean‑Charles Gordon, vice president of shipping and logistics at Kpler. “China consumes half of Iran’s oil.”
In 2025, 251 ships were loaded with sanctioned Iranian oil; According to Kpler data, 217 of these ships (86%) were sanctioned and targeted by a government that identified them as carrying illicit oil. The remaining 34 ships are in the active shadow fleet that moves sanctioned crude oil through deceptive practices. The majority of these ships (96%) conducted dark ship-to-ship transfers; 77% spoofed their ship’s location; and 72% turned off ship location beacons for extended periods of time.
According to Kpler, there were 510 ships loaded with Russian oil subject to sanctions in 2025. Of these, 305 were sanctioned, or 59% of the fleet. A further 86 ships, representing roughly 17% of the total fleet, will be considered a “shadow fleet.” These ships also engaged in spoofing ship positions and prolonged AIS gaps.
“The dark fleet is not disappearing; it is becoming more offshore, more fragmented and behaviorally more extreme,” Gordon said.
