Will ‘One Battle After Another’ ride the anti-ICE protest wave to the Oscars?

The film, praised by critics for its timeliness, may be taking advantage of the news cycle at the right time.

Paul Thomas Anderson’s politically charged thriller “One War in a Row” has maintained its lead in the Best Picture category at this year’s Oscars since the fall. If you read my review, you know that I recommend it to those who can compartmentalize their personal politics because A lot left wing

It’s about a group of self-described revolutionaries on the run from a gang of white nationalist authoritarians. The opening scene literally depicts them releasing illegal immigrants from a detention center; Not to mention they also bombed courthouses and the offices of anti-abortion lawmakers. One man’s revolutionary is another man’s domestic terrorist.

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That aside, “OBAA” is a well-made movie. Despite its working time of approximately 3 hours, it never lags. The performances of the cast, led by Leonardo DiCaprio, the music and editing were top notch. Would I give it Best Picture? 2025 was a weaker year for movies overall — if I were a member of the Academy, I’d vote for “Hamnet” — although a Best Picture win was always possible.

Now, with all the turmoil unfolding in Minnesota, the Best Picture award may already be a lock.

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“OBAA” won the Golden Globe for Best Comedy or Musical (it’s neither a comedy nor a musical. Don’t even try to explain how movies and TV shows are classified at the Golden Globes). The film, which has since been nominated for an Oscar in 13 categories, has received more nominations than any other film, including Ryan Coogler’s vampire thriller “Sinners”, and broke records with 16 nominations.

(L-R) Benicio del Toro, Teyana Taylor, Sara Murphy, Chase Infiniti, Leonardo DiCaprio, Paul Thomas Anderson and Sean Penn accept the Award for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy for the “One Battle After Another” scene at the 83rd Annual Golden Globe Awards held at The Beverly Hilton on January 11, 2026 in Beverly Hills, California.

But the current political climate will likely push “OBAA” into the Best Picture race. Liberal Hollywood isn’t shy about making a statement. Just look at all the “Be Good” pins worn to honor Renee Good at the Golden Globes and the marathon ICE hit at the Grammys last week. Despite the irony that “OBAA” will be released whether Trump or Kamala Harris wins the 2024 election, they will use “OBAA” as a giant “F you” against Donald Trump and his administration.

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Moreover, many in the Academy probably feel that Paul Thomas Anderson is finally owed an Oscar. Anderson has now been nominated 14 times and has previously been rejected for films like “Boogie Nights,” “Magnolia” and “There Will Be Blood.” In other words, it’ll get the same treatment Christopher Nolan received two years ago when Best Picture winner “Oppenheimer” went decades without a win.

Between national politics and Academy politics, the wind is definitely blowing at “OBAA”‘s back.

The unrest in Minneapolis is on Hollywood’s agenda, between “Be Good” badges worn at the Golden Globes and anti-ICE rhetoric at the Grammys. (Getty Images)

Is there any chance of getting upset? Of course, “Sinners” is clearly favored by the Academy — beating out previous record holders “Titanic,” “La La Land” and “All About Eve” in total nominations — and will likely win a few awards in the craft categories. But as we saw last year for “Emilia Pérez,” having the most nominations doesn’t always mean it will win Best Picture. The Academy may believe that since Coogler, 39, likely has a long career as a writer and director ahead of him, voters will wait and give the award to Anderson, 55, before giving him an Oscar.

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“Hamnet” may be the darkest of the dark horses in this race. Although it had a completely different constituency (mostly foreign press), it upset “Sinners,” which won Best Drama at the Golden Globes. However, the Academy has welcomed more and more foreign filmmakers and actors in recent years; That’s why we’re seeing more and more foreign films being nominated for Best Picture. They can rally behind Shakespearean family drama through America-based “OBAA” and “Sinners.” But perhaps working against “Hamnet” is the fact that writer/director Chloé Zhao just won two Oscars for her work on the 2021 Best Picture winner “Nomadland.”

“One War Then Another” director Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated for an Oscar 14 times over the decades but has never won, perhaps encouraging Academy voters to finally give him an award. (John Shearer/WireImage)

The only real indicator between now and the Oscars that will confirm “OBAA’s” frontrunner status will be how the various guild awards fare in the coming weeks, particularly the Producers Guild Awards, Directors Guild Awards, Writers Guild Awards and Screen Actors Guild Awards (now known as the Actor Awards); because most of the guild voters are also Academy voters. If “OBAA” sweeps those, it would be incredibly likely that a Best Picture win would follow. The race could be further fueled if other films like “Sinners” and “Hamnet” emerge as big winners.

Considering all this, “OBAA” still has the advantage. Since the firestorm over ICE is unlikely to melt away anytime soon, “OBAA” will almost certainly be our next Best Picture winner.

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