A surprise candidate to replace Starmer could neutralise Farage’s voter appeal
TThese are desperate days for Sir Keir Starmer, who clings to power after the furor sparked by the Mandelson scandal.
According to some sources, the prime minister is in a “dark place” and is even reflecting his anger and embarrassment over appointing Peter Mandelson as US ambassador, even as he considers whether he will remain prime minister.
Not only the revelation that Mandelson had an ongoing relationship with financier Jeffrey Epstein after he was convicted of sex trafficking and pedophilia, but also allegations that he leaked government documents sensitive to the Epstein market while he was business secretary have also shaken the Labor Party and the Starmer government.
And when Sir Keir was forced to make a U-turn on Wednesday over the publication of review papers into Mandelson’s appointment, it was clear Labor had lost control of parliament, with many MPs saying his position was “untenable”.
Who could replace Keir Starmer?
That’s the question that needs to be answered before Labor MPs move to replace a leader who returned them to power with a huge majority just 19 months ago after 14 years in the wilderness.
While all the leading candidates have their own issues, the answer to this question is not clear enough to make many MPs willing to join the coup.
Surprise candidate who will give Farage nightmares
One name that has now emerged is Minister of Veterans Affairs Al Carns. It appears to be his best shot, but according to Nigel Farage’s friends, it’s the one option Reform Britain doesn’t want Labor to take.
Mr Carns was a Royal Marines colonel who earned the Military Cross and served in Afghanistan.
From both inside and outside the Labor Party, the Aberdon native has been linked with a potential bid for No 10 if a vacancy opens up, and he has strong support from business and third sector communities in Britain’s second city Birmingham, where he is MP for Selly Oak.
When you’re being shot by the Taliban and leading soldiers into battle with bullets flying around you, the prospect of Mr Farage’s verbal attacks and bad posts on X, or even the whining of Labor supporters, probably doesn’t seem all that worrying.
But his resume isn’t his only strength. His policy positions would be problematic for the Conservatives and Reform UK. He would provide legal protection against prosecution for veterans, abandon the Chagos Islands treaty (according to sources) and take a much tougher stance on immigration.
An ally of Mr Farage said: Independent: “We are watching Al Carns closely. He would be a nightmare for Reform UK. He would basically neutralize all of Nigel’s lines of attack with voters. He would also come in without any of the political baggage of the others.”
The lack of political baggage of a government tainted by scandals and U-turns can be a strength.
However, his weakness is his lack of political experience and lack of a clear supporter base. He was only elected in the 2024 general election and does not have traditional union or Labor support. Labor is already cursing the day they elected a leader with a career outside politics (Starmer as director of public inquiries) only to discover his shortcomings in political skill and intelligence.
Still, Mr. Carns may be the “clean hands” compromise candidate needed to bring the disparate factions together.
Why not King in the North?
The problem is that despite being popular with voters and immensely talented, Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham cannot re-enter parliament. Seeing a coup coming, Starmer blocked him from running in the Gorton and Denton by-election.
What about the Queen’s exile?
Angela Rayner is certainly maneuvering to replace Starmer. Taking the Conservative Party’s side in the Humble Speech debate on Wednesday forced Starmer into a humiliating U-turn, agreeing to release all review documents into Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador.
He now reports that he has recommended against the appointment of Mandelson as deputy Prime Minister. And just days before the crucial by-election on February 26, he will make a major speech on behalf of the influential Mainstream group.
But Ms Rayner can’t make any moves at the moment because she’s still waiting for HMRC to report that she hasn’t paid nearly £30,000 in stamp duty on a flat in Brighton. Until the issue that forced him to resign is cleared or at least resolved, he will remain under a cloud and will not be able to easily become Prime Minister.
What about the crown prince?
Health Minister Wes Streeting has been described as the leader of the future for years. Before Christmas Downing Street accused him of trying to stage a coup against Starmer.
But Mr Streeting, a powerful media artist, is now also struggling to escape the shadow of his mentor Peter Mandelson. No amount of deleted photos or social media posts can separate him from a person who is dragging the Labor Party down with him.
Maybe the missing leader?
Energy minister Ed Miliband was a popular figure at the Labor Party conference last autumn and has found new strength and purpose as an advocate for net-zero emissions and stopping climate change.
His real problem is that he’s still haunted by awkward photos of himself eating a bacon sandwich.
In other words, he has still not recovered from the failures of his first leadership period between 2010 and 2015; this led to a shocking election victory for the Conservative Party and the Brexit referendum that ultimately took the UK out of the EU.
At the very least, he can say that he refused to have anything to do with Mandelson while he was leader, making him almost unique among Labor leaders of the last 30 years; The only other exceptions are Jeremy Corbyn and the late John Smith.
